Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
When Elon Musk announced that the twitter deal was on ice, share prices started to tumble back down towards key daily support at 32.00. Elon Musk’s concerns was over how many of Twitter’s accounts were so called ‘spam accounts’.
However, the deal is not entirely off. On Tuesday, Elon Musk stated that a viable Twitter deal is ‘not out of question’ at a lower price. Furthermore, Twitter CEO’s Agrawal says internal estimates of spam accounts for last 4Q were ’well under 5%. This is in contrast to Elon Musk who said that there was ‘no way to know’ the number of bots on Twitter, but the lowest estimate would be 20%.
So, will Elon Musk push through with the Twitter deal? Will he solve the spam account issue and work out how many bots there really are?
If he does, twitter has some extremely strong seasonals.
Over the last 8 years Twitter has gained an average of 18.11% between May 18 and July 23. The largest gain was in 2021 with a 39.63% profit. The company only lost value during this period once! Time for more gains to come?
Major trade risks: If Elon Musk backs away from the deal completely then Twitter’s slide in share price could continue. If global growth shows further signs of slowing then global stocks can continue to fall lower.
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