TRY: Lower-than-expected inflation after the start of the cutting cycle – ING

December inflation in Turkey surprised to the downside with a drop from 47.1% to 44.4% YoY, below market expectations, ING’s FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.

TRY returns to the weakening trajectory of previous weeks

“Downside risk was indicated by inflation numbers from Istanbul yesterday. This is good news for the central bank after the start of the cutting cycle last week. The month-on-month rate fell from 2.2% to 1.0% MoM, while the market was expecting 1.6%. The central bank can thus continue the cycle at the January meeting.”

“Although the market reacted strongly to the first central bank rate cut last week, especially at the front of the OIS and bond curve, we believe the market still has room to price in more cuts, particularly in this segment of the curve.”

“TRY stabilized yesterday and today after holiday volatility and is returning to the traditional weakening trajectory of previous weeks. Despite the start of the FX carry cutting cycle, it remains attractive, which should keep market attention strong this year.”