Trump to continue weighing on the Euro – Commerzbank

Over the course of the week, there will be few data releases from the euro zone, except for the purchasing managers' indices on Friday. The market could primarily get information from the words of the many ECB members, who will be speaking in the coming days, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

Too many ECB speakers to keep up with

“The ECB, like the Fed, will increasingly focus on the economic outlook thanks to the ongoing disinflation. And here the signals have not been very encouraging recently, with the economy remaining fragile. ECB officials therefore will likely be cautious about the growth outlook, but this is not a new insight. The market already prices in rate cuts down to 2% by mid-2025 and goes even a bit further until autumn. Therefore, ECB officials would have to sound much more concerned to further depress interest rate expectations, but there is currently no reason for this. So words are unlikely to be followed by action in the market.”

“Therefore, the euro is likely to be driven primarily by economic data. The leading indicators on Friday could provide an indication of how the economy will develop in the coming months. However, those hoping for strong impulses could be disappointed. The overall PMI is likely to remain at the 50 mark in November, just above the threshold between recession and slight growth. Industry continues to be a burden, as this sub-index is likely to stabilize at a very low level at best. In this respect, the familiar information is likely to remain: industry continues to weaken, so the winter half-year remains difficult and the economy is making only slow progress. Only an unexpected outlier in either direction in the PMI, which is highly unlikely, could therefore lead to a more pronounced movement in the euro before the weekend.”

“Although there is little data on the agenda in the US this week, the news flow on the plans of the new US president-elect is likely to continue to determine events in EUR/USD anyway. In this respect, it is also primarily words that count for the market on the US dollar side. And as in the past few weeks, the dollar is likely to continue to set the tone in EUR/USD. However, many of the new US administration's personnel decisions are now known. Furthermore, it is only when the new administration takes office that it becomes clear exactly which of Trump's plans will be implemented. Therefore, in the absence of any major surprises, I expect EUR/USD to trade sideways this week in the face of a lack of impetus.”