So far this week, neither the Australian Dollar (AUD) nor the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) have been able to benefit from the general weakness of the US Dollar (USD), and both currencies have weakened slightly over the course of the week, Commerzbank FX strategist Volkmar Baur notes.
AUD to suffer more than on the NZD
“It seems that both are being weighed down more by weak data from China than the USDo is by recession fears in the US itself. A look at the export data shows why. About 35% of all Australian exports over the past 12 months went to China, while the figure for New Zealand was still around 25%. A prolonged slowdown in China is therefore likely to affect both countries – although over time it should become clear that Australia will suffer more than New Zealand.”
“This is because not only is China's share of total exports higher in Australia than in New Zealand. The composition also suggests that Australia will be hit harder. Because while New Zealand exports mainly food, iron ore alone accounts for 26% of all Australian exports - of which around 85% are shipped to China. Together with coal, of which about 11% also goes to China, these two commodities account for about 42% of Australian exports.”
“With Chinese stockpiles of both iron ore and coal recently at very high levels, Australian exports could remain under pressure in the coming months. Especially if the property crisis in China continues. This is likely to weigh on the AUD more than on the NZD.”
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