USD/INR Price Analysis: Lacks any firm direction, stuck in a range around 100-day SMA


  • USD/INR oscillates in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Wednesday.
  • Failure to find acceptance below the 100-day SMA warrants caution for bearish traders.
  • A break below the 82.00 confluence is needed to support prospects for additional losses.

The USD/INR pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Wednesday and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the Asian session. The pair currently trades around the 82.25-82.30 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and remains well within the striking distance of its lowest level since May 16 touched on Tuesday.

From a technical perspective, the USD/INR pair, so far, has been showing some resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May rally. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the overnight swing low, around the 82.15 area, before placing fresh bearish bets. This is closely followed by the 82.00 confluence, comprising the very important 200-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibo. level.

A convincing break below the latter will mark a fresh breakdown and set the stage for an extension of the recent pullback from the vicinity of the 83.00 round figure. With oscillators on the daily chart just starting to gain negative traction, the USD/INR pair might then accelerate the downfall towards the 81.75 intermediate support en route to the March/April swing low, around 81.50 strong horizontal support.

On the flip side, the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 82.40 region, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. The next relevant resistance is pegged near the 82.60-82.65 zone, or the 23.6% Fibo. level, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering move. The USD/INR pair might then make a fresh attempt to conquer the 83.00 round-figure mark. Bulls might eventually aim to challenge the all-time high, around the 83.40-83.45 area touched in October 2022.

USD/INR daily chart

fxsoriginal

Key levels to watch

USD/INR

Overview
Today last price 82.2932
Today Daily Change 0.0040
Today Daily Change % 0.00
Today daily open 82.2892
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 82.5791
Daily SMA50 82.2005
Daily SMA100 82.2688
Daily SMA200 82.016
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 82.4932
Previous Daily Low 82.1575
Previous Weekly High 82.712
Previous Weekly Low 82.403
Previous Monthly High 82.981
Previous Monthly Low 81.6435
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 82.2857
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 82.3649
Daily Pivot Point S1 82.1334
Daily Pivot Point S2 81.9776
Daily Pivot Point S3 81.7978
Daily Pivot Point R1 82.4691
Daily Pivot Point R2 82.6489
Daily Pivot Point R3 82.8047

 

 

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