Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, sees good reasons to be cautious with USD longs at the moment.
Anyone looking at USD risk has to weigh the probabilities against the consequences
“It is becoming increasingly clear why the ‘it was always alright in the end’ argument is of little use when it comes to the looming US Treasury debt ceiling.”
“The economists and political analysts who tell us the story of ‘it was always alright in the end’ have a different risk-reward profile to those who have to manage USD risks. If they are wrong either way it has more or less the same effect for them. So from their perspective, it's rational to bet on the scenario with the highest probability. But if that were to go wrong, the potential consequences for the Dollar would be dramatic.”
“Anyone looking at USD risk has to weigh the probabilities against the consequences. And then the risk of default becomes so relevant that it is likely to make many market participants more cautious. This may be one of the reasons why the Dollar has so little potential for strength right now.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0400 after upbeat US data
EUR/USD consolidates daily recovery gains near 1.0400 following the release of upbeat United States data. Q3 GDP was upwardly revised to 3.1% from 2.8% previously, while weekly unemployment claims improved to 220K in the week ending December 13.
GBP/USD extends slide approaches 1.2500 after BoE rate decision
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and break lower, nearing 1.2500 after the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decisions. The BoE maintained the bank rate at 4.75% as expected, but the accompanying statement leaned to dovish, while three out of nine MPC members opted for a cut.
Gold approaches recent lows around $2,580
Gold resumes its decline after the early advance and trades below $2,600 early in the American session. Stronger than anticipated US data and recent central banks' outcomes fuel demand for the US Dollar. XAU/USD nears its weekly low at $2,582.93.
Bitcoin slightly recovers after sharp sell-off following Fed rate cut decision
Bitcoin (BTC) recovers slightly, trading around $102,000 on Thursday after dropping 5.5% the previous day. Whales, corporations, and institutional investors saw an opportunity to take advantage of the recent dips and added more BTC to their holdings.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.