Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes the FX market outlook after the release of the February flash PMIs from around the world.
The Euro can’t ignore Germany
The Eurozone is slowly healing but is doing so without Germany and the Euro can’t ignore Germany. So, the uptrend in the Eurozone PMI is unlikely to give the currency a boost. NOK and SEK, or PLN, are a better buy than the EUR. AUD is a buy against any part of Europe as Chinese stimulus starts to have an impact.
GBP will likely remain resilient for several more months as the BoE drags its heels on easier monetary policy, regardless of growing long-term structural threats to growth (and Sterling).
If US January ISM data are strong too, the danger is that USD/JPY gets to 155.00 before it turns lower, too. A BoJ policy pivot won’t come fast enough for Yen bulls and the March meeting feels a long way away right now.
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