Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
One of the key features around seasonality is the so-called turn-of-the-month effect. This is when major indices tend to gain around the end of a month and into the first few days of the new month. However, using Seasonax you can also look at the seasonality for indices around the middle of the month which can show some surprising seasonal biases.
The Nikkei, for instance, has a 60% bias towards winning trades on the first two days after the third of the month. The average return is 0.29% of the average profit is 52.52 points. In the next 5 days after the turn of the month, the winning percentage remains around 60% with the average return increasing to 0.41%. With investors having been turning positive on Japanese stocks earlier this year, will the outlook for the Nikkei be positive around the turn of the month?
Major Trade Risks: The major trade risks here would be further talk of the BoJ exiting negative interest rates which can strengthen the JPY. A strong JPY is a natural headwind for Japan’s export-heavy Nikkei.
Our products and commentary provides general advice that do not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD accelerates losses to 1.0930 on stronger Dollar
The US Dollar's recovery regains extra impulse sending the US Dollar Index to fresh highs and relegating EUR/USD to navigate the area of daily troughs around 1.0930 in the latter part of Friday's session.
GBP/USD plummets to four-week lows near 1.2850
The US Dollar's rebound keep gathering steam and now sends GBP/USD to the area of multi-week lows in the 1.2850 region amid the broad-based pullback in the risk-associated universe.
Gold trades on the back foot, flirts with $3,000
Gold prices are accelerating their daily decline, steadily approaching the critical $3,000 per troy ounce mark as the Greenback's rebound gains extra momentum and US yields tighten their retracement.
Can Maker break $1,450 hurdle as whales launch buying spree?
Maker holds steadily above $1,250 support as a whale scoops $1.21 million worth of MKR. Addresses with a 100k to 1 million MKR balance now account for 24.27% of Maker’s total supply. Maker battles a bear flag pattern as bulls gather for an epic weekend move.
Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”
Liberation Day in the United States came with extremely protectionist and inward-looking tariff policy aimed at just about all U.S. trading partners. In this report, we outline some of the more strategic implications of Liberation Day and developments we will be paying close attention to going forward.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.