Tesla Stock Price and Forecast: TSLA stuck on supply chain issues

Tesla looked ready to get going after multiple false starts and pitstops along the way. The stock has been threatening to make a decent move higher for some time, but each time it is ready some headwind comes along to knock the bulls back. We have had investigations from the US highway safety authorities, worries over increased regulation in China, and now it seems every crash involving a Tesla is heavily scrutinized. In this author's opinion, Tesla crashes seem to garner much greater media attention than crashes involving other manufacturers, but perhaps that is the result of Tesla leading the way in new technologies. Either way the stock kept getting knocked back, but the move on Tuesday above $730 finally should have set the stock up for some proper gains and a test of $780.

Wednesday was a pretty slow day for the stock with it closing at $734.09 for a small loss of just 0.22%. The chart was looking good, the momentum oscillators were turning higher, and Tesla seemed to have gotten the bad news behind it. All it takes with Tesla though is one little tweet and, unfortunately, it looks like it is yet again going to fail and fall back. Supply chain issues have been hitting many companies globally in 2021 and, in particular, chip shortages have caused numerous problems. Elon Musk tweeted on Wednesday.

This tweet came out at 1810 GMT/1410 EST, and an hour later the Tesla stock price crumbled as we can see from the 5-minute chart above. This may or may not have been the reason, but it does seem like a plausible explanation. News that Tesla had to halt production in China for four days last month, also due to chip issues, added to the woes. Premarket signs on Thursday are not good with further selling pushing Tesla down to $729. The Roadster shipping in 2023 represents a delay of approximately a year, so it is a pretty big disappointment. 

Tesla key statistics

Tesla stock forecast

We had repeatedly identified how important it is for Tesla stock to break and consolidate above $730. The stock repeatedly fails here. We had hoped the move on Tuesday was the final catalyst. However, we would not be getting too bearish just yet. This information, while disappointing regarding the Roadster delay, should not be too suprising given the issues facing many automakers globally. We do not know how much Wall Street analysts have penciled in the Roadster to the bottom line, so we will need to keep a close eye for any potential price target changes. We would not expect anything too significant. However, this just adds to the recent choppy trading that has been the main chartacteristic of Tesla stock for most of the summer.

We would still be bullish on a break of $730 with $780 our first target. Volume thins out once above $730 with a real drop above $750. If we return to the chop, then support is at $682 on a volume basis and also the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Tesla has bounced off the 200-day SMA several times this summer. 

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