Tesla (TSLA) Stock News and Forecast: Q1 deliveries grow 36% YoY

• Tesla delivered 422,875 vehicles in Q1.
• Sales were aided by largscale discounts worldwide.
• In January Elon Musk projected 2 million deliveries in 2023.
• Production of 440,808 vehicles also beat estimates by 2%.

Tesla (TSLA) posted first quarter deliveries of 422,875 late Sunday, beating Wall Street estimates by about 1,700. The record quarterly deliveries amounted to a 36% growth rate YoY, quite robust but far short of CEO Elon Musk's original 50% annual growth goal. TSLA stock dropped 2% in Monday's premarket, while NASDAQ futures also declined 0.6%.

Tesla stock news: Over-promising, under-delivering

Tesla produced 440,875 vehicles in the first quarter, about 2% ahead of the consensus estimate of 342,513. Taken together the quarter was solid, but a look at the premarket tells us that some were expecting far higher growth due to Tesla's worldwide discounting offers that began in December and January. Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced price cuts of as much as 20% on certain models, especially the Model Y, to boost demand. Based on TSLA price action, It would appear that the market thought these discounts would succeed in helping Tesla meet that 50% growth threshold. 

Chinese battery supplier and Tesla partner CATL saw its share price drop 1.8% on the news, while Chinese competitor Nio (NIO) fell more gently with the latter reporting March deliveries that rose just 4% YoY.

Some analysts and portfolio managers chimed in to say that though Tesla had met the Street's forecasts, many other observers expected to see a major beat due to the discounts. Other analysts said that the numbers were positive in light of the deteriorating macro environment and higher interest rates on car loans. The consensus seems to be a move toward wondering what Tesla's margins will be for the first quarter in light of the heavy discounting.

Over the weekend, Elon Musk said that he toured the company's factory in Austin, Texas, where Tesla is putting the finishing touches on its assembly line for the Cybertruck. The model will enter commercial production in the second half of this year.

Tesla reports financial results for Q1 on April 19 after the market close. Wall Street is currently expecting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.85 on sales of $23.37 billion.

Tesla stock forecast

Tesla stock looks like it wants to retract to $199, the resistance level from February and March. If that level proves not to hold, then the short-term moving averages may do the trick. The 9-day moving average is currently at $194.33, while the 21-day sits at $187.73. A break of both moving averages would let bears push TSLA stock down to the March 13 support at $167.50, but that seems unlikely unless the broad market decides to dip. A break above the $214 threshold from February will place TSLA back in an uptrend.

TSLA daily chart