Tesla trade idea: How to play the long term trend decelerating lower

Part 1) introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests trend-inspired trades that capitalize on market trends.

In the short term Tesla has been decelerating higher. In the long term Tesla has been decelerating lower. With the long term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with a time horizon.

Part 2) trade idea details

2A) Trade Idea Graph

2b) Intraday Predictions

Sell $ 30,292 USD of Tesla, take profit at $ 115.8162 level with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD gain, stop out at $ 123.7238 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon.

Part 3) TSLA trend analysis

TSLA last price was $ 119.77. The long term trend decelerating lower is stronger than the short term trend decelerating higher. This trade goes short when the price was moving lower and decelerating over the past 19 days.

Part 4) TSLA value analysis

Over the past 19 days, the TSLA price increased 5 days and decreased 14 days. For every up day, there were 2.8 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 6.1181% The average return on days where the price decreased is -4.6742% Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -31.99% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -1.6837% percent.

Part 5) TSLA worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for TSLA, is $ 107.8059 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 131.7341 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 123.7238 could trade and that $ 115.8162 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Key Takeaways:

• Price today $ 119.77

• Over the past 19 days, the TSLA price increased 5 days and decreased 14 Days.

• For every up day, there were 2.8 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 6.1181%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -4.6742%.

• Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -31.99% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -1.6837% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, The price has on average been decelerating: $ -0.0233 per day lower.

• Over the last session, the price increased by $ 0.81.

• Over the last session, the price increased by 0.6763 %.

• Over the last session, the price decelerated by $ -15.15.