Technical analysis: Will the Orange Juice (OJ) quotes continue to increase?

Dmitry Lukashov IFC Markets

Orange Juice technical analysis summary

Buy Stop։ Above 148.

Stop Loss: Below 133.

Indicator	Signal
RSI	Neutral
MACD	Buy
MA(200)	Neutral
Fractals	Neutral
Parabolic SAR	Buy
Bollinger Bands	Neutral

Orange Juice chart analysis

On the daily timeframe, ORANGE: D1 went up from the triangle. Some technical analysis indicators have formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if ORANGE breaks above the last high of 148. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible below the Parabolic signal, the last three lower fractals and the 200-day moving average line: 133. After opening a pending order, we move the stop after the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (133) without activating the order (148), it is recommended to delete the order: the market is experiencing internal changes that were not taken into account.

Fundamental analysis of commodities – Orange Juice

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) once again lowered its forecast for the US orange crop. Will the ORANGE quotes continue to increase?

In March, the USDA estimated the US orange crop for the 2021/2022 crop season at 3.78 million tons. This is 15% less than in the previous 2020/2021 season and 3% less than the forecast published in February this year. Another positive factor for quotes may be the data of the Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters that the export of orange juice from Brazil from the beginning of the current season in July 2021 to February 2022 decreased by 1% compared to the same period of the previous season and amounted to 658, 4 thousand tons. Note that the Citriculture Defense Fund (Fundecitrus) predicts a 10.2% reduction in Brazil's orange crop due to bad weather. According to Fundecitrus, the export of orange juice to China for 8 months of the current season increased by 60% to 51.7 thousand tons. However, while its share in Brazilian exports still does not exceed 10%. At the same time, about 64% of juice is supplied to Europe and 20% - to the USA. China ranks 3rd.

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Author

Dmitry Lukashov

IFC Markets

Dimtry Lukashov is the senior analyst of IFC Markets. He started his professional career in the financial market as a trader interested in stocks and obligations.

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