SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY Stock News and Forecast: Another range-bound inside day, breakout coming soon


  • SPY stock trades little changed for most of Wednesday.
  • More uncertainty is likely on Thursday as Russia tensions remains high.
  • 2021 favorite Nvidia smashed earnings, but stock falls.

The main indices yet again traded in a tight range after Wednesday's reports of Russian troops returning to their bases were contradicted by NATO and US reports. All this has meant risk-taking is limited, and so the riskier growth stocks gave up most of Tuesday's gains. The net results were another range trading day for the SPY, which opened at $443 and closed at $446. Eventually, range trades lead to breakouts, so it is important to keep an eye on which way this is likely to move.

SPY News

Last night after the close Nvidia reported earnings. Nvidia was one of the top-performing stocks last year and is now a significant weighting in the main indices. Nvidia beat forecasts on both EPS and revenue. It also issued guidance for the next quarter ahead of estimates. Normally, this would see the share price surge, but instead the stock is down 3%. Some of this is due to the fact the stock has run up 10% this week, but mostly it is reflective of the current environment. Nvidia trades on a high multiple, and high growth stocks are not as strong as during 2021. The hawkish Fed and surging inflation have seen to that. 

Geopolitical events this morning have also resurfaced with reports from the UK and US of Russia adding 7,000 troops to the Ukraine border. We also have unconfirmed reports of artillery being fired. All in all, risk-off is likely to once again dominate. 

SPY Forecast

Yesterday traded along the previous day's $443 to $446 range, but when looking at the volume profile we see most of yesterday's volume took place at the lower end of the daily range, a slightly bearish sign. 

SPY chart, 15-minute

On the daily chart, we can see a breakout from this $443 to $446 range will then target one of two key pivot points at $428 and $458. For now, with all the contradicting news flow over Russia, more chop is likely. This may present short-term scalping opportunities around recent ranges as we do not expect much follow-through from any moves until the Russia-Ukraine situation settles down. Breakouts on lack of new news may provide useful entries when betting on a return to the range.

SPY chart, daily


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