Darren Chu, CFA
Tradable Patterns
The S&P500 (ES) slid nearly 2.5% Friday, closing just above the 2025 low formed mid March. Last week’s red weekly candle bearishly engulfed the prior green weekly candle, suggesting an end to the Bear Flag consolidation of the past 3 weeks. Odds are elevated for an extension of the Bear Flag this week to a fresh 2025 low. The March high and low will be lower than the February high and low which were in turn, lower than the December equivalents.
The powerful Bull Market extension from October 2022 has ended, as seen easier with the long March red candle body and the monthly MACD trying to negatively cross. Bearishly for the rest of 2025, the 3 month MACD histogram is tilting lower with the MACD blue line flattening. Regardless, bears should not rule out some short covering as early as Tuesday with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings or Wednesday with the US ADP Non-Farm employment change.
By Thursday, odds rise again for heightened volatility with the US unemployment claims, ISM Services PMI and Friday with the highly anticipated US average earnings, non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and Fed Chair Powell comments.
The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD are tiring or steadily sloping down. I am looking to enter short in the red zone (of the daily chart), targeting the green zone for Friday. The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).
Weekly/daily/4hr
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