S&P 500 Index to extend its rally, defying more persistent inflation

Strategists at Capital Economics think that inflation in the US will prove more persistent than both the Fed and investors appear to anticipate. Notwithstanding, they still expect the S&P 500 to make some further gains over the next couple of years.

Higher inflation not to derail US equities

“We still expect the US economy to grow strongly over the next two years thanks to a combination of loose fiscal and monetary policy, and for this to support corporate earnings and appetite for risk generally. Indeed, we think that, in light of its new framework, the Fed will keep the real stance of monetary policy loose over the next few years, even as inflation proves more entrenched.”

“A lot of good news on the economy already appears to be reflected in the current level of the S&P 500. However, we think there is still scope for earnings in some sectors that have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic to surprise to the upside.”

“While we think that the rise in the 10-year TIPS yields will prevent the valuation of US equities from increasing further we doubt that it will cause it to plummet. After all, we still expect the yield of 10-year TIPS to stay very low by historical standards. What’s more, stock market valuations have often only tended to fall when profit margins have been squeezed by a faltering economy.”

“While our view that inflation in the US will prove persistent is a reason why we forecast gains in the S&P 500 over the next few years to be small, we are not anticipating a repeat of the sharp sell-offs seen during the periods of high inflation in the 1960s and 1970s.”

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.