S&P 500 Index: Risks skewed to the upside, the 4219 current high is in sight – Credit Suisse

S&P 500 is back at 4200 as the May Payroll release approaches. Although the core trend stays seen higher, economists at Credit Suisse continue to look for a consolidation/corrective phase to emerge from here in the interim.

See – Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Forecasts from eight major banks for April jobs report

S&P 500 would mark a near-term top only below 4118

“Whilst the immediate risk is seen higher our broader view remains unchanged and with a range of ‘red flags’ and overextension signals still in place our bias is not to chase strength for now and we continue to look for the unfolding of a consolidation/corrective phase.”

“Our base case remains that such consolidation, if indeed even seen, will be a temporary and healthy phase within the core bull trend.”

“Immediate resistance moves to 4209, then the 4219 current high. A close above here can reassert the uptrend, with resistance seen next at 4236/37, with tougher resistance expected at 4256/60.” 

“Support moves to 4187/86 initially, then 4168, below which can see a move back to more important support seem starting at the lower end of the uptrend channel from early March at 4131 ahead of the late April low at 4118. Only below this latter level would set a top with support then seen next at 4086, then 4079 – the 38.2% retracement of the rally from late March.”