- US indexes climbed on Friday, led by chip makers.
- Investors have pivoted to tech shares to shake off Fed rate tantrum.
- Markets go haywire as the US Dollar, US equities, and Treasury yields all rise.
The Standard & Poor’s drove to a new all-time high of $4,839.58 on Friday as equities broadly rallied as investors pile into future earnings bets on large-cap tech stocks, with chip-makers loosely associated with AI tech projects leading the charge.
Money markets are broadly shaking off months of begrudgingly giving up ground on rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, rate swap bets are pricing in nearly a 40% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s March policy meeting, down significantly from over a 70% chance just a month ago.
Fed officials have been pushing back against market expectations of an increased pace of rate cuts from the US central bank, and markets appear to finally be listening as US economic data continues to thump market forecasts, printing consistently higher and healthier than investors were hoping for as markets yearn for cheaper lending and borrowing costs.
US Consumer Sentiment improved to its best reading since July of 2021 according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. The UoM’s 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations Survey in January also declined to familiar lows at 2.8% from December’s 2.9%.
With the US economy continuing to bump along at a healthy clip and US consumers expecting inflation to remain above the Fed’s 2% target for the foreseeable future, market hopes of Fed rate cuts are unlikely to see a happy conclusion, with money markets now leaning into the FOMC’s May meeting as a possible start to the next cutting cycle.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) also rose to an all-time high, touching $37,931.36 and wrapping up Friday at $37,863.80, climbing over 395 points and gaining 1.05% on the day.
The NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 indexes hit their own all-time highs on Friday, with the NASDSAQ Composite climbing 255.32 to $15,310.97 to a Friday gain of 1.7% while the NASDAQ 100 soared 1.75% to end at $17,316.87, up over 296 points.
S&P 500 Technical Outlook
The S&P 500 major equity index climbed nearly one and a quarter percent to hit an all-time high of its own, ending Friday at $4,839.81, up 58.87 points on the day.
Near-term bullish momentum in equity indexes has sent the S&P well above any technical zones and pinning into record peaks. The S&P could decline over 8% and still be in bull country above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,400.00, and the closest technical barrier sits at the 50-day SMA near $4,650.00.
S&P 500 Hourly Chart
S&P 500 Daily Chart
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.