S&P 500: 2024 stars, flops, and what's hot for 2025

As 2024 ends, US equities have had a stellar year, with the S&P 500 delivering a 24% return in USD terms. Diving deeper into the index, the biggest winners and losers tell a story of significant market trends and investment themes that will likely remain relevant into 2025.

Top performers of 2024

• Artificial Intelligence leads the charge: AI continues to dominate as one of the most significant investment themes, propelling stocks like NVIDIA and Palantir to the top.

  • NVIDIA: Built on its 2023 gains, fueled by unprecedented demand for AI chips.

  • Palantir: Benefited from its enterprise AI solutions, filling unique technology niches.

  • Broadcom: Benefited from expectations of robust AI revenue growth given its differentiated chip design capabilities for high-performance networking and computing that is making it take market share from Nvidia.

• Energy and utilities shine: The push for renewable energy and nuclear power has created immense value in the utility sector.

  • Vistra: Thrived on strong cash flow and renewable energy investments.

  • GE Vernova: Benefited from the renewed focus on nuclear energy as part of the clean energy transition.

• Defense and security make a comeback: Geopolitical tensions and rising defense budgets boosted stocks in the defense sector.

  • Axon Enterprise: Leveraged higher demand for public safety technology, including TASERs and body cameras.

  • Howmet Aerospace: Played a pivotal role in supplying critical components for military aircraft.

• Oil and Gas expansion: Traditional energy had a resurgence, especially in regions like the Permian Basin.

  • Targa resources and texas pacific land: Both saw strong growth from expanding oil and gas production under the “drill baby drill” narrative.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo

Worst performers of 2024

Not all sectors participated in the rally, as challenges in healthcare, retail, and semiconductors weighed on several stocks.

• Healthcare sector struggles: The healthcare industry faced significant headwinds, with regulatory changes and shifting market dynamics impacting major players.

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance: Struggled with declining foot traffic and increased competition from online pharmacies, leading to a substantial drop in stock value.

  • Moderna: Faced challenges in sustaining growth after the initial success of its COVID-19 vaccines, leading to a significant stock decrease.

  • CVS Health: Faced challenges in adapting to new healthcare models and competitive pressures, resulting in a notable decline in its stock performance.

  • Humana: Experienced a downturn due to increased competition and regulatory uncertainties affecting its healthcare services.

• Retail sector challenges: Economic uncertainties and changing consumer behaviors have taken a toll on retail giants.

  • Dollar Tree: Encountered difficulties in maintaining profitability amidst rising operational costs and shifting consumer preferences.

  • Dollar General: Suffered from economic pressures and a decrease in consumer spending, leading to a significant drop in stock value.

  • Estee lauder companies: Faced supply chain disruptions and changing consumer habits, impacting its stock performance negatively.

• Technology competition: Some tech firms like Intel struggled to maintain momentum post-pandemic due to the technological shifts in the semiconductor industry, resulting in a steep decline.

• Energy transition: High interest rates continued to make the operating environment difficult for renewable energy companies like Enphase Energy.

• Broader economic slowdown: Weakness in auto and industrial sector demand weighed on Celanese.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo

Investment themes and takeaways for 2025

• AI remains a megatrend: The AI boom is far from over. High valuations in NVIDIA and Palantir reflect investor expectations for sustained growth.

  • Subthemes such as increased energy needs for data centers will drive opportunities in utilities and clean energy.

  • NVIDIA thrived due to AI-driven demand, while Intel (-62%) struggled amid reduced consumer electronics sales and competition from companies like Apple making their own chips. This divergence reflects the “elimination race” in the semiconductor space.

• Clean energy & utilities are crucial: The transition to renewables and nuclear energy continues to drive significant returns.

  • Companies like Vistra and GE Vernova highlight a derived sub-theme—AI’s energy-intensive infrastructure is boosting utilities, particularly those invested in nuclear power.

• Defense spending on the rise: Global geopolitical tensions make defense and security a critical investment area.

• Energy expansion is back: Traditional energy remains vital, with oil and gas companies capitalizing on expanded production opportunities. The “drill baby drill” narrative and US energy independence push suggest ongoing opportunities in traditional energy.

• Healthcare may be poised for recovery: Despite current pressures from rising costs and regulatory risks, healthcare remains ripe for growth through defensive strategies and innovations in AI, obesity, and cancer therapies, offering long-term investment opportunities.

• Consumer sector divergence: The US consumer market is experiencing a shift, with trading down trends becoming more prevalent. This divergence in retail trends presents both challenges and opportunities, as some retailers adapt to changing consumer preferences while others struggle to maintain market share.

Read the original analysis: S&P 500: 2024 Stars, Flops, and What's Hot for 2025