Snapchat trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating higher

Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.

Market summary

Price

SNAP last price was $ 11.66.

Trend analysis

In the short term Snapchat has been accelerating higher. In the long term Snapchat has been accelerating lower.

Value analysis

Over the past 19 days, the SNAP price increased 9 days and decreased 10 days. For every up day, there were 1.11 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 2.8601% The average return on days where the price decreased is -2.9079%

Performance

Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -4.5% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.2368% percent.

Trade idea

With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a long trade idea with an overnight time horizon.

The trade idea

Buy $ 65,983 USD of Snapchat, take profit at $ 11.9636 level with 24.99% odds for a $ 1,718 USD gain, stop out at $ 11.4833 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon.

Intraday predictions

SNAP trend analysis

SNAP last price was $ 11.66. The short term trend accelerating higher is stronger than the long term trend accelerating lower. This trade goes long when the last change was higher and accelerating.

SNAP value analysis

Over the past 19 days, the SNAP price increased 9 days and decreased 10 days. For every up day, there were 1.11 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 2.8601% The average return on days where the price decreased is -2.9079% Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -4.5% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.2368% percent.

SNAP worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for SNAP, is $ 11.1369 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 12.1831 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 11.4833 could trade and that $ 11.9636 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Expected range

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for SNAP, is $ 11.1369 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 12.1831 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 11.4833 could trade and that $ 11.9636 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Probability Vs Payout Chart:

This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.

Key Takeaways:

• Price today $ 11.66

• Over the past 19 days, the SNAP price increased 9 days and decreased 10 Days.

• For every up day, there were 1.11 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 2.8601%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -2.9079%.

• Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -4.5% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.2368% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, The price has on average been accelerating: $ 0.0417 per day lower.

• Over the last session, the price increased by $ 0.79.

• Over the last session, the price increased by 6.7753 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by $ 0.11.