SMH semiconductor ETF reacted from a blue box breaking to new highs

Elliott Wave Forecast Team ElliottWave-Forecast.com

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks a market-cap weighted index composed of 25 of the largest U.S.-listed semiconductor companies. The top holdings of SMH include companies like NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Broadcom Inc., Texas Instruments, QUALCOMM, ASML Holding N.V., Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, Micron Technology, Inc., and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

SMH four-hour chart April 19th

In March 2024, the ETF made a peak at 239.14 high and we called as wave (III). Then, the market started a pullback and we called a double correction structure. Down from the peak, we can see 3 swings that ended wave w at 212.82 low. Another 3 swings bounced to finish wave x at 230.95 high. From here, we were looking for 3 swings more to the downside to reach 204.63 – 188.26 area. In the blue box, we were expecting that buyers appear to call wave y and wave (IV) ended and resume the rally in wave (V).

SMH four-hour chart May 23th

After a month, We can see SMH reached the blue box ended wave (IV) at 198.41 low and rally as expected. The ETF is developing an impulse as wave I of (V) and we see the structure incomplete at the moment. The uptrend ended wave ((1)) of I at 219.62 high. Then we had a fast correction as wave ((2)) ending at 206.11 low. The market remained up with a strong momentum in wave ((3)). Wave (1) of ((3)) ended at 223.18 high. Wave (2) correction at 218.11 low. The rally continued ending wave (3) at 236.04 high and wave (4) pullback at 231.87 low.

After NVDA earnings results, SMH broke higher above wave (III) peak confirming more upside extension. Currently, wave (5) of ((3)) could be near to end. When we see a strong correction as wave ((2)), wave ((3)) should be ended and we would expect 3, 7 or 11 swings correction to complete wave ((4)) before resuming to the upside in wave ((5)) of 1. The strategy is looking for buying opportunities after wave ((4)) is completed to trade wave ((5)) higher.

Author

Elliott Wave Forecast Team

ElliottWave-Forecast.com

EUR/USD onsolidates around mid-1.1800s as traders keenly await FOMC Minutes

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 1.1800 neighborhood, or a one-and-a-half-week low, and consolidates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.1800s, nearly unchanged for the day.

GBP/USD seems vulnerable near mid-1.3500s; UK CPI/FOMC Minutes awaited

The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's late rebound from an over one-week low – levels below the 1.3500 psychological mark – and trades with a negative bias for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. The downside, however, remains cushioned as investors seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of the release of the latest UK consumer inflation figures and FOMC Minutes.

Gold bounces back toward $4,900, looks to FOMC Minutes

Gold is attempting a bounce from the $4,850 level, having touched a one-week low on Tuesday. Signs of progress in US–Iran talks dented demand for the traditional safe-haven bullion, weighing on Gold in early trades. However, rising bets for more Fed rate cuts keep the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders now seem reluctant ahead of the FOMC Minutes, which would offer cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and provide some meaningful impetus.

Top Crypto Gainers: Jito drops, Morpho holds steady, Convex Finance climbs

Decentralized Finance tokens, including Jito, Morpho, and Convex Finance, rank among the top-performing crypto assets over the last 24 hours. Jito dips on Wednesday after rallying 22% the previous day on the launch of a new mainnet node.

UK jobs market weakens, bolstering rate cut hopes

In the UK, the latest jobs report made for difficult reading. Nonetheless, this represents yet another reminder for the Bank of England that they need to act swiftly given the collapse in inflation expected over the coming months.

Ripple slides to $1.45 as downside risks surge

Ripple edges lower at the time of writing on Tuesday, from the daily open of $1.48, as headwinds persist across the crypto market. A short-term support is emerging at $1.45, but a buildup of bearish positions could further weaken the derivatives market and prolong the correction.