Alvin Liew, Senior Economist at UOB Group, comments on the release of Retail Sales figures in Singapore.
Key Takeaways
“Singapore’s retail sales declined by -1.4% m/m, following 1.8% increase in May, breaking the streak of 3 consecutive months of m/m increase. That translated to a weaker-than-expected 14.8% y/y expansion in Jun (from 17.8% in May), against Bloomberg median forecast of a 18.3% y/y growth. That said, this was still the third consecutive month of double-digit growth. Excluding motor vehicle sales, the m/m decrease was more pronounced at -1.9%, (from 2.7% in May), translating to a +19.8% y/y increase (from 22.6% y/y in May).”
“While the growth fell short of forecast, Jun retail sales growth still added to a solid foundation for domestic demand in the 2Q22, it should be noted that according to the Department of Statistics Singapore, the y/y increase was again distorted by the low base effect of the prior year (Jun 2021) when COVID-19 restriction measures were in place, such as international travel restrictions. The weaker m/m print could also be due to more households on overseas holidays during the school break, leading to lower on-shore expenditure during Jun.”
“Year-to-date, retail sales grew by 10.4% y/y. We believe domestic retailers will likely see domestic and external support, complemented by the return of major events such as the F1 formula night race in Sep. On the flipside, we believe that the elevated commodity price pressures, especially on energy and food prices, will feed into higher retail prices in the next few months and eat into the average household’s disposable income, thereby reducing their spending on discretionary items. Barring the re-emergence of fresh COVID-19 or other health-related risks in Singapore and around the region (leading to re-imposition of social and travel restrictions, which is not our base case), we still project retail sales to expand by 9.0% in 2022 (implying a more conservative forecast of 7.6% growth in 2H 2022). The primary driver is still low base effect which is likely to continue to uplift retail sales growth prints in the coming months.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD: The hunt for the 0.7000 hurdle
AUD/USD quickly left behind Wednesday’s strong pullback and rose markedly past the 0.6900 barrier on Thursday, boosted by news of fresh stimulus in China as well as renewed weakness in the US Dollar.
EUR/USD refocuses its attention to 1.1200 and above
Rising appetite for the risk-associated assets, the offered stance in the Greenback and Chinese stimulus all contributed to the resurgence of the upside momentum in EUR/USD, which managed to retest the 1.1190 zone on Thursday.
Gold holding at higher ground at around $2,670
Gold breaks to new high of $2,673 on Thursday. Falling interest rates globally, intensifying geopolitical conflicts and heightened Fed easing bets are the main factors.
Bitcoin displays bullish signals amid supportive macroeconomic developments and growing institutional demand
Bitcoin (BTC) trades slightly up, around $64,000 on Thursday, following a rejection from the upper consolidation level of $64,700 the previous day. BTC’s price has been consolidating between $62,000 and $64,700 for the past week.
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.
Five best Forex brokers in 2024
VERIFIED Choosing the best Forex broker in 2024 requires careful consideration of certain essential factors. With the wide array of options available, it is crucial to find a broker that aligns with your trading style, experience level, and financial goals.