Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats from two-month highs below $31.00
- Silver price drops over 1.5% after reaching a two-month high of $31.43, currently trading at $30.66.
- A daily close below $30.66 could exacerbate a drop toward the psychological $30.00 level, targeting the 100-day moving average (DMA) and the 50-DMA.
- If XAG/USD remains above $31.00, a re-test of the September 20 high at $31.44 is possible.
Silver price retreats after hitting a two-month high of $31.43, falls over 1.50% and trades at $30.66 at the time of writing. Although US economic data was soft and US Treasury yields remained unchanged, the grey metal failed to gain traction on Monday.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver is upward biased, though a decisive breach below the downslope resistance trendline turned support can pave the way for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) peaked shy of cracking 64 and edged lower, indicating that sellers are stepping in.
If XAG/USD prints a daily close below $30.66, that could exacerbate a drop to challenge the $30.00 mark. On further weakness, the next stop would be the 100-day moving average (DMA) at $29.47, followed by the 50-DMA at $28.96.
On the other hand, if XAG/USD stays above $31.00, look for a re-test of the daily September 20 high at $31.44.
XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
