Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD bounces off 100 DMA, bears have the upper hand below 38.2% Fibo.

Silver manages to defend the 100-day SMA support and stage a modest bounce from its lowest level since late November, around the $21.80 region touched earlier this Monday. The white metal, however, lacks any follow-through buying and struggles to capitalize on the recovery move beyond the $22.00 mark.

From a technical perspective, last week's break and acceptance below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022 favours bearish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in the negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, supports prospects for an extension of the recent sharp pullback from the $24.65 area, or over a nine-month high touched on February 2.

Some follow-through selling below the 100-day SMA, currently around the $21.75 region, will reaffirm the near-term bearish outlook. The XAG/USD would then turn vulnerable to test the 50% Fibo. level, around the $21.35 area. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the $21.00 level en route to the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $20.60-$20.55 zone. The commodity could eventually drop towards challenging the $20.00 psychological mark.

On the flip side, any meaningful recovery beyond the $22.15 area - the 38.2% Fibo. support breakpoint - is more likely to attract fresh sellers near the $22.60-$22.70 supply zone. This, in turn, should cap the XAG/USD near the $23.00 mark, representing the 23.6% Fibo. That said, a convincing break through the latter could offset the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favour of bullish traders, paving the way to reclaim the $24.00 round figure.

Silver daily chart

Key levels to watch