SEK: Slower inflation consolidates case for cuts – ING

Sweden’s inflation figures released this morning came in less hot than expected, with headline CPIF slowing down to 1.5% and the key core measure (CPIF excluding energy) decelerating from 2.4% to 2.1% in December, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/SEK to trade in the 11.30-11.50 range for most of this year

“That further endorses our view that the Riksbank will take rates to the 2.0% mark with two back-to-back 25bp reductions on 29 January and 20 March. Markets are broadly pricing in a similar scenario, meaning the impact on the currency should not be material.”

“Three-month historical volatility on EUR/SEK has plummeted of late and is at the lowest since 2021, a quite welcome development for the Riksbank which is likely to tolerate the pair trading around 11.50 while still flagging the krona’s rebound potential.”

“Sweden’s sounder economic prospects compared to the eurozone means that in the event of Trump’s tariff threat materialising, the Riksbank should not have to cut rates as much as the ECB. That explains our view of a stable or modestly lower EUR/SEK in the 11.30-11.50 range for most of this year.”