Russian Rouble to weaken steadily over the long term – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Russian Central Bank (CBR) meets today. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Rouble’s (RUB) outlook ahead of the decision.

No rate cut from CBR

No (polled) analyst is expecting a change to the Russian Central Bank’s main rate from the current 16%.

Needless to say: this rate decision does not influence the ‘technical fix’ USD/RUB or EUR/RUB exchange rates that we observe – those are determined solely by demand-supply of energy (and some other commodity) trade.

On that basis, we forecast the Rouble to weaken steadily over the long term. Interest rates could have potentially affected the exchange rate only if capital flows could have occurred in response to interest rate differentials. But in Russia’s case, this cannot happen in US Dollars or Euros because of sanctions.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD gathers traction, approaches 1.1800

EUR/USD manages to reverse Tuesday’s pullback, advancing to two-day highs near the 1.1800 hurdle in the latter part of Wednesday’s session. The pair’s decent uptick comes on the back of the modest retracement in the US Dollar, as investors continue to closely follow developments on the trade front and news from the White House in the wake of President Trump’s SOTU speech.

GBP/USD challenges multi-day highs near 1.3530

GBP/USD leaves behind the previous day’s decline and regains fresh upside traction on Wednesday, surpassing the 1.3500 barrier in a context of a modest decline in the Greenback and a generalised improved mood in the risk-linked space. Meanwhile, the US tariff narrative continues to dictate the mood among market participants after Presidet Trump’s SOTU speech failed to surprise markets.

Gold remains bid and close to $5,200

Gold buyers are returning to the fold on Wednesday, targeting the $5,200 area and possibly beyond, after Tuesday’s corrective dip from monthly highs. The rebound in the precious metal comes as the US Dollar loses traction, with Trump’s SOTU speech offering little fresh direction and AI-related nerves continuing to ease.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP test rebound strength as ETF inflows return

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are gaining traction at the time of writing on Wednesday, amid persistent market doldrums. The Crypto King is up over 2% intraday, trading above $65,000 from the day’s opening of $64,058.

Nvidia earnings to influence AI trade and broader market sentiment

For the last three years, Nvidia has been the engine of the AI boom, and now Wall Street is watching to see whether that momentum can keep going. High-growth stocks have been struggling to maintain their bullish trend in 2026.

Cosmos Hub Price Forecast: ATOM rebounds slightly, bearish outlook remains intact

Cosmos Hub (ATOM) price rebounds, trading above $2.05 at the time of writing on Wednesday, after undergoing a sharp correction since last week. Weakening on-chain and derivatives data support a bearish outlook, while technical analysis remains unfavorable.