RBNZ likely to have two further cuts in May and August next year

According to analysts at ANZ, the RBNZ, RBA, and the Federal Reserve have all now joined the Texas Hold’em club, betting – for now – on previous rate cuts doing the job.

Key Quotes

“Most analysts and the market had been expecting one more cut from the RBNZ last week, taking the OCR to an RBA-matching 0.75%. But while the RBNZ did significantly downgrade their near-term outlook, as expected, a lower TWI and a downward revision to their estimate of how fast the economy can grow offset that.”

“There are still aspects of their medium-term outlook that we see as too optimistic, and the RBNZ has yet to take into account the bank capital changes, to be announced 5 December.”

“We are now forecasting two further cuts in May and August next year, taking the OCR to 0.5%. The risks are tilted towards earlier and/or more cuts, depending partly on the outcome of the RBNZ’s capital proposals, but also global factors.”

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