RBA’s MPS: Trims GDP growth and inflation forecasts for end 2023

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) on Friday, suggesting a reduction in the central bank’s inflation and growth forecasts for this year.

Key takeaways

Some further tightening may be required.

Board considered raising rates at Aug meeting, decided stronger case was to hold steady.

Risks around inflation are broadly balanced, but much depends on inflation expectations.

Inflation is moving in the right direction, consistent with reaching target by late 2025.

Policy has been tightened significantly, full impact has yet to be felt.

Board mindful of lags in policy, painful financial squeeze on some households.

Board keen to preserve gains made in labour market.

Tightening could provide some further insurance against upside inflation risks.

Trims GDP growth and inflation forecasts for end 2023, most others little changed.

Forecasts GDP end 2023 0.9%, end 2024 1.6%, end 2025 2.3%.

Forecasts trimmed mean inflation end 2023 3.9%, end 2024 3.1%, end 2025 2.8%.

Forecasts CPI at end 2023 4.1%, end 2024 3.3%, end 2025 2.8%.

Forecasts unemployment end 2023 3.9%, end 2024 4.4%, end 2025 4.5%.

Forecasts wage growth end 2023 4.1%, end 2024 3.8%, end 2025 3.6%.

Forecasts assume cash rate of 4.25%, falling to 3.25% by end 2025.

Global growth seen well below average over next two years.

Outlook for China has been revised lower, a downside risk for export prices.

Market reaction

AUD/USD is unfazed by the dovish RBA MPS, holding higher ground near 0.6580, up 0.39% on the day.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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