RBA’s Bullock: Board remains cautious about prospects for further policy easing
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said late Thursday that the central projection suggests that if monetary policy is eased too quickly or by too much, disinflation could stall and inflation would settle above the midpoint.
Key quotes
The board is committed to being guided by the incoming data and our evolving assessment of the risks.
While the strong employment growth is good news for jobseekers, we are alert to the possibility that it is signaling a bit more strength in the economy.
We have not pre-committed to any particular course of action on interest rates.
Satisfied with the progress on inflation so far – though our job is definitely not done.
The central projection suggests that if monetary policy is eased too quickly or by too much, disinflation could stall and inflation would settle above the midpoint of the target range.
So the board remains cautious about prospects for further policy easing.
The economic outlook remains uncertain.
We have made good progress on inflation, however, the board needs to be confident that it is returning to the target range sustainably.
Wage data came in as expected, labour market still strong.
Still have a tight labour market, think it's a little too tight.
Board did not want to be late in easing.
Board aware of long and variable lags for policy.
We might have some more cuts in rates but we have to be cautious.
Going to be data driven, people have to be patient.
Market reaction
At the press time, the AUD/USD pair was down 0.08% on the day to trade at 0.6398.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
