Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is addressing a press conference following the announcement of the April monetary policy decision on Tuesday.
Earlier on, the RBA kept the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.1% as widely expected.
Key quotes
Chance there is more strength in economy than seems.
Talking to other central banks to make sense of global uncertainty.
Have to be careful not to get ahead of ourselves on policy.
Board did not discuuss a rate cut.
Holding rates was a consensus decision.
Still thinnk labour market is tight.
Budget has not changed our ecoonnic forecasts.
Risks are on both sides for inflation.
Getting more confident on inflation.
Board has not made up its mind on a May move.
Not endorsing market path on future rate cuts.
Board did not open door to a May rate cut.
More economic data to come, updated forecasts for the May meeting.
Doing pretty well on inflation overall.
Gradually getting more confidence on inflation, not 100% yet.
Seems prudent to wait for a bit more data.
Market reaction
AUD/USD is holding higher ground near 0.6260 on the above comments, adding 0.30% on the day, as of writing.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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