RBA Preview: Forecasts from 9 major banks, hiking for the fifth time by 25 bps

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its next monetary policy decision on Tuesday, March 7 at 03:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of 9 major banks regarding the upcoming central bank's decision.

The RBA is set to deliver another 25 basis points rate hike in March, lifting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 3.35% to 3.60%. The focus will be on the March statement for any changes in the central bank’s language, with regard to the wage and rate hike outlook.

ING

“We expect that the upcoming RBA meeting is going to be much more interesting than has been the case recently. The RBA will want to see confirmation of a downward trend in inflation, not just a reversal of seasonal spikes to even consider pausing its current 25 bps per meeting tightening strategy. The softer-than-expected 4Q22 GDP number was encouraging but we would need to see confirmation from other data to conclude that a slowdown is underway, and of a sufficient magnitude to see inflation fall back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range.”

ANZ

“While the weak wages resultraisesthe risk the RBA may feel able to pause in its tightening cycle earlier than we currently think, we still expect another 25 bps hike. The nascent recovery in housing prices would suggest that rate hikes have not yet quelled demand enough to be confident that inflation will move back into the target band in a reasonable time frame. We’ll be watching the post-meeting statement for the RBA’s take on the wages data. The Board’s interpretation of the wages data will give us a guide on what might be ahead.”

Westpac

“We expect the Board will decide to lift the cash rate by a further 0.25% from 3.35% to 3.6%. We would be very surprised if the Board decided to pause in March. A further hike in April, which is Westpac’s view, seems the logical extension of the February statement. Any policy change to take the recent data into account should be contemplated for May.”

Standard Chartered

“We expect a 25 bps hike to 3.60%. We recently revised the terminal rate to 4.10% from 3.50% previously. Specifically, we expect the central bank to hike by 25 bps each in March, April and May. Trimmed mean CPI inflation eased to 1.7% QoQ in Q4-2022 from 1.9% QoQ in Q3 – still far too high. Inflation pressures are also still very broad – we estimate that 84% of items in the CPI basket are rising by more than 3% YoY. These factors raise risks of a 50 bps hike in March.”

TDS

“The focus will be on whether the RBA softens its language in light of recent weaker data. On the back of the widening breadth and persistence of inflation, the cash rate in Australia remaining below comparable G10 economies, and the Australian economy more likely to benefit from China's reopening, we expect the RBA to push on with hikes in Apr and May.”

Nomura

“We expect the RBA governor’s press release to: i) announce a 25 bps hike; ii) contain mixed macro comments; and iii) provide less hawkish forward guidance.”

SocGen

“We believe that recent signs in the macroeconomic data, such as the decline in inflation, the rebound in unemployment rate, relatively lukewarm wages growth and the confirmation of consumption slowdown all support a 25 bps hike in March. They also support our base scenario of a terminal policy rate at 3.85%, despite the financial market’s more hawkish expectation on US Fed policy.”

Citibank

“We expect RBA to increase the cash rate by 25 bps to 3.60%. This would be the highest since May 2012 and take monetary policy further into restrictive territory. Citi’s mid-point estimate of neutral is ~ 2.85%.”

Wells Fargo

“We expect the RBA to raise its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.60%, while we also expect a final 25 bps rate hike to 3.85% in April. There could also be interest in this meeting as to whether the RBA hints at any possibility that rate hikes might continue beyond April as well.”