Preview of the employment report - Nomura


Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the employment report.

Key Quotes:

"We forecast that nonfarm payrolls increased by 160k in November, comparable with the gains seen in October. 

We expect a modest rise of 5k in government payrolls, implying that private payrolls increased by 155k. Incoming data on the labor market, for the most part, imply steady employment activity with limited involuntary layoffs in November. We see some upside risk to our below-consensus forecast from two sources. 

First, the ADP employment report showed that private payrolls grew by 216k in November, well above market expectations (Nomura: 155k, Consensus: 170k). The strong ADP employment figure could portend to a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls number on Friday. 

Second, in the past, the payrolls figures have suffered from residual seasonality during the holiday period. With more consumers opting to do their holiday shopping online rather than at brick-and-mortar stores seasonal hiring patterns have been much more pronounced in the couriers and delivery service sector. Residual seasonality has been diminishing as the seasonal adjustment process has responded to the new pattern. 

However, we still find some residual seasonality in the data and we may still see some upward bias in November and December. Elsewhere, we expect the unemployment rate to decline further to 4.8% in November. On wages, we expect growth in average hourly earnings to slow to 0.1% m-o-m (2.7% y o-y) following a sharp increase of 0.4% m-o-m in the previous month. 

We think that the prior month’s strong wage growth was artificially amplified by inclement weather holding down the average weekly hours worked during the survey reference period. To that end, we think that some payback is warranted in November as conditions returned back to normal."

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: The hunt for the 0.7000 hurdle

AUD/USD: The hunt for the 0.7000 hurdle

AUD/USD quickly left behind Wednesday’s strong pullback and rose markedly past the 0.6900 barrier on Thursday, boosted by news of fresh stimulus in China as well as renewed weakness in the US Dollar.

AUD/USD News
EUR/USD refocuses its attention to 1.1200 and above

EUR/USD refocuses its attention to 1.1200 and above

Rising appetite for the risk-associated assets, the offered stance in the Greenback and Chinese stimulus all contributed to the resurgence of the upside momentum in EUR/USD, which managed to retest the 1.1190 zone on Thursday.

EUR/USD News
Gold holding at higher ground at around $2,670

Gold holding at higher ground at around $2,670

Gold breaks to new high of $2,673 on Thursday. Falling interest rates globally, intensifying geopolitical conflicts and heightened Fed easing bets are the main factors. 

Gold News
Bitcoin displays bullish signals amid supportive macroeconomic developments and growing institutional demand

Bitcoin displays bullish signals amid supportive macroeconomic developments and growing institutional demand

Bitcoin (BTC) trades slightly up, around $64,000 on Thursday, following a rejection from the upper consolidation level of $64,700 the previous day. BTC’s price has been consolidating between $62,000 and $64,700 for the past week.

Read more
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures

RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures

The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.

Read more
Five best Forex brokers in 2024

Five best Forex brokers in 2024

VERIFIED Choosing the best Forex broker in 2024 requires careful consideration of certain essential factors. With the wide array of options available, it is crucial to find a broker that aligns with your trading style, experience level, and financial goals. 

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures