- The Pound Sterling rises even though investors expect the BoE to follow a less gradual policy easing cycle in 2025 than previously anticipated.
- Traders project at least two BoE interest rate cuts of 25 bps next year.
- US Initial Jobless Claims surprisingly fell to 219K last week.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) gains against its major peers on Friday, with investors looking for fresh cues about how the Bank of England (BoE) will follow the interest rate cut path in 2025. The latest BoE policy announcement in mid-December indicated a dovish buildup as the nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold, a bigger split than the 8-1 economists had predicted.
A higher number of BoE officials voting for an interest rate cut has led traders to gradually raise dovish bets for 2025. Markets currently see a 53-basis points (bps) reduction in interest rates in 2025, up from 46 bps after the BoE policy announcement on December 19, suggesting that there will be at least two meetings in which officials will reduce key borrowing rates by 25 bps.
Meanwhile, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has not guided a specific policy easing path for 2025, citing heightened uncertainty in the United Kingdom (UK) economy.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling moves higher against US Dollar
- The Pound Sterling gains around 1.2550 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday amid thin trading volume following Christmas and Boxing Day. The GBP/USD pair rises as the US Dollar ticks lower, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) edging down to near 108.00. However, the outlook of the Greenback remains firm as investors remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver fewer interest rate cuts in 2025.
- Fed officials have collectively forecasted that the Federal fund rate will be at 3.9% by the end of 2025, suggesting that there will be two interest rate cuts next year against the four cuts projected in September. The Fed has turned cautious on interest rate cuts as the growth outlook is positive and the labor market is holding up.
- Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 20 have also come in lower than expected. Individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time surprisingly fell to 219K from the former release of 220K. Economists expected the number of jobless claims to come in higher at 224K.
- Additionally, inflationary pressures have turned out stubborn in the past few months. This scenario has renewed fears of price pressures remaining persistent.
- Going forward, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be revised estimates for S&P Global and ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December, which will be released next week.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.30% | -0.14% | -0.08% | 0.14% | -0.15% | 0.24% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | -0.18% | -0.02% | 0.05% | 0.27% | -0.03% | 0.36% | |
| GBP | 0.30% | 0.18% | 0.16% | 0.23% | 0.45% | 0.16% | 0.55% | |
| JPY | 0.14% | 0.02% | -0.16% | 0.04% | 0.28% | -0.11% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | -0.05% | -0.23% | -0.04% | 0.20% | -0.08% | 0.31% | |
| AUD | -0.14% | -0.27% | -0.45% | -0.28% | -0.20% | -0.29% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | 0.15% | 0.03% | -0.16% | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.29% | 0.39% | |
| CHF | -0.24% | -0.36% | -0.55% | -0.28% | -0.31% | -0.10% | -0.39% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling wremains below key EMAs
The Pound Sterling remains vulnerable against the US Dollar after a breakdown below the upward-sloping trendline around 1.2600, which is plotted from the October 2023 low of 1.2035.
All short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping down, suggesting a strong bearish trend in the long run.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 40.00. A fresh downside momentum could trigger if the oscillator sustains below this level.
Looking down, the pair is expected to find a cushion near the April 22 low at around 1.2300 if it breaks below the immediate support of 1.2485. On the upside, the December 17 high at 1.2730 will act as key resistance.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
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