Pound Sterling strengthens amid UK political stability, fragile US Dollar

The Pound Sterling holds gains against the US Dollar with a focus on Fed Powell’s testimony.
BoE’s Haskel argued in favor of holding interest rates steady at their current levels.
This week, investors will pay close attention to the US CPI and UK factory data.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) ranges above 1.2800 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s American session. The GBP/USD pair turns quiet as investors await the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony, which is scheduled at 14:00 GMT.

Fed Powell is expected to acknowledge some progress made on inflation and will remain data-dependent for rate cuts. Powell could continue to refrain from providing any timeframe for rate cuts and emphasize the need to keep interest rates higher until policymakers see inflation declining for months. However, he could also show some concerns over moderating United States (US) labor market strength

The overall appeal of the Cable is quite firm as market speculation for the Fed to begin reducing interest rates from the September meeting has deepened. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data shows that the probability of rate cuts in September has improved to 77% from 65.6% recorded a week ago. The expectations for early Fed rate cuts have been prompted by the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June, which indicated that the labor market has lost momentum.

This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published on Thursday. The US CPI report is expected to show that the core inflation, which strips off volatile food and energy items, grew steadily by 0.2% and 3.4% on a monthly and annual basis, respectively. Signs of stalling progress or reverse in disinflation would dampen market expectations for Fed rate cuts in September, while soft figures will boost them.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Pound Sterling strengthens against Greenback ahead of UK GDP/US CPI

The Pound Sterling exhibits a quiet performance against its major peers as investors shift focus to the United Kingdom's (UK) monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the factory data for May, which will be published on Thursday.
The UK economy is estimated to have expanded by 0.2% after remaining unchanged in April. Also, Manufacturing and Industrial Production are expected to have grown decently after contracting in April.
On the monetary policy front, Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Haskel advocated for holding interest rates at their current levels as price pressures in the job market remain firm. Haskel said, "I would rather hold rates until there is more certainty that underlying inflationary pressures have subsided sustainably," Reuters reported. Haskel remains concerned over high inflation in the labor market due to strong wage growth, which is roughly double what is required to tame price pressures.
Jonathan Haskel is one of the policymakers who voted longest for tightening the monetary policy further. Contrary to Haskel’s viewpoint, traders expect that the BoE will start reducing interest rates from the August meeting.
On the political front, the overall outlook of the Pound Sterling has remained firm as an outright majority by Keir Starmer-led Labour Party in UK parliamentary elections has brought political stability in the economy.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling remains firm amid advancing 20-and 50-day EMAs

The Pound Sterling trades close to a three-week high above 1.2800 in Tuesday’s late Asian session. The GBP/USD pair forms an inverted Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern on a daily timeframe. The neckline is plotted near 1.2850. A breakout of the H&S formation results in a bullish reversal.

Advancing 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.2725 and 1.2690, respectively, suggest that the overall trend is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. A sustained move above the same will keep the momentum towards the upside.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

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