GBP/USD takes a hard rejection from fresh highs, but holds on the bullish side
GBP/USD briefly clipped the 1.3200 handle for the first time in six months on Thursday, climbing into fresh highs as the Greenback turns sour across the board. The Trump administration’s “reciprocal” tariffs and a flat tariff have kicked the legs out from beneath market sentiment, despite a delayed reaction to tariff announcements that came after US markets closed on Wednesday.
This week, the UK economic data release schedule is relatively sparse, but a new report on US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be published on Friday. This NFP data could significantly influence markets as the US economy transitions to a post-tariff landscape, with March’s labor figures expected to serve as a “bellwether” for the effects of the Trump administration’s tariff strategies. Read more...
Pound Sterling outperforms US Dollar as Trump tariffs fuel US recession risks
The Pound Sterling (GBP) surges to near 1.3200 against the US Dollar (USD) during the North American trading hours on Thursday, the highest level seen in almost six months. The GBP/USD pair soars as the US Dollar plummets after US President Donald Trump unveils worse-than-expected tariffs for his trading partners. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, nosedives to near 101.35.
US President Trump announced a 10% baseline duty on all products entering the US and additional specific levies on the majority of its trading allies, which have followed threats of countermeasures by their leaders. Market participants expect that the full-scale implementation of tariffs will lead the US economy to a recession. Such a scenario underpins the need for more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) despite knowing that higher levies have also stoked worries about persistent inflation. Read more...
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Sticks to strong gains near multi-month top, above mid-1.3000s
The GBP/USD pair gains strong follow-through positive traction for the second successive day on Thursday and advances to its highest level since October 2024 during the Asian session. Spot prices currently trade just above mid-1.3000s, up 0.40% for the day, and seem poised to climb further amid a bearish US Dollar (USD).
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, dives to a fresh year-to-day low in reaction to US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, which lifts bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This, along with the anti-risk flow, triggers a steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields and further undermines the buck. Read more...
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EUR/USD holds losses below 1.1400 ahead of ECB policy decision
EUR/USD stays on the back foot below 1.1400 in the European session on Thursday. The pair loses ground on the back of a broad US Dollar rebound and as traders remain cautious ahead of the European Central Bank interest rate decision and Lagarde's press conference.
GBP/USD stays defensive near 1.3250 as US Dollar bounces
GBP/USD stays defensive near 1.3250 in Thursday's European trading, snapping its seven-day winning streak. A tepid US Dollar recovery amid risk appetite prompts the pair to pullback from six-month highs of 1.3292 set on Wednesday. Traders look to tariff headlibnes and US data for fresh impetus.
Gold off from fresh all-time highs on progress in US-Japan trade talks
Gold price corrects slightly to near $3,312 in Thursday’s European session after hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,358 earlier in the day. The precious metal faces profit-booking as meaningful progress in trade negotiations between the United States (US) and Japan has offered some relief on fears of potential global economic turmoil.
European Central Bank set to cut interest rates again amid easing inflation and tariff uncertainty
The European Central Bank will announce its April interest rate decision on Thursday at 12:15 GMT. Markets widely expect the central bank to lower key rates for the sixth consecutive time. This time the ECB is set to deliver another 25 basis points (bps) cut after the April policy meeting.
Future-proofing portfolios: A playbook for tariff and recession risks
It does seem like we will be talking tariffs for a while. And if tariffs stay — in some shape or form — even after negotiations, we’ll likely be talking about recession too. Higher input costs, persistent inflation, and tighter monetary policy are already weighing on global growth.
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