GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: No reprieve amid Ukraine crisis, focus shifts to Fed and BOE
It was a brutal week for markets, as the tensions between the West and Russia intensified over the latter’s invasion of Ukraine. Risk-off trades dominated almost throughout the week, as investors dumped the higher-yielding currencies such as the pound while seeking safety in the US dollar and gold. Stagflation risks from the Ukraine crisis will continue to spook markets heading into a busy week. Top-tier economic releases from both sides of the Atlantic will be closely followed alongside the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy announcements. Read more...
GBP/USD Forecast: Pound stays under bearish pressure despite upbeat UK data
The British pound has met fresh selling pressure early Friday and has slumped to its weakest level since November 2020 near 1.3050. Unless the pair manages to stage a rebound and hold above 1.3100, it is likely to extend its slide toward 1.3000 in the near term. Earlier in the day, the data published by the UK's Office for National Statistics revealed that the economy grew by 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, compared to the market expectation of 0.2%. Additionally, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production expanded by 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, in the same period and both of these prints surpassed analysts' estimates. Read more...
GBP/USD plunges and prints a new YTD low at 1.3027
The British pound heads into the weekend, set to record losses as Wall Street’s bell signals the end of a hectic week, mainly driven by market sentiment, leaving macroeconomics or, also sometimes, central banks aside. In tone with the week, Friday’s trading day fluctuated between risk-on/off, on reports from Russia saying that its President Putin seen “certain positive shifts” in talks with Ukraine, while Ukraine Foreign Minister, saying the opposite. That said, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.3035, down 0.39%.. Read more...
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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