GBP/USD depreciates as Trump trade rallies on exit polls favoring the Republican candidate
GBP/USD offers its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.2940 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains momentum on strengthening Trump trades as the voting favored Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
Polling data indicate a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump currently holding an edge. On Kalshi, Trump shows a strong 57% to 43% lead over Harris, while on Polymarket, the gap is slightly wider, with Trump at 60.7% and Harris at 39.5%. These figures reflect growing support for Trump as election day approaches, but the race remains competitive. Read more...
GBP/USD pushes back above 1.30 as the US heads into election territory
GBP/USD found the gas pedal on Tuesday, ramping up another two-thirds of a percent and clawing back above the 1.3000 handle as markets brace for what is likely to be a messy outcome from the US presidential election. Widely-anticipated rate cuts are also due from both the Bank of England (BoE) and Federal Reserve (Fed) this week, giving investors plenty to chew on in what is set to be one of the busiest weeks of the rest of the trading year.
US election odds have both candidates neck-and-neck in a dead-heat race for the Presidency, with former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris polling within 5% of each other, depending on which poll results you reference. Equity investors, tech sector addicts specifically, appear to broadly believe former President Trump to be the preferred stock-friendly candidate, an odd choice considering the Republican candidate has strongly voiced support of a return to the Smoot-Hawley tariff era of US history. Trump has regularly suggested stiff tariffs across the board on all imported goods into the US, an incredibly inflationary economic policy proposal. Read more...
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Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
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Elections, inflation, and the bond market
The Federal Reserve believes inflation is no longer a concern for consumers and the time has come to ensure the rate of change of prices does not decline any further.
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Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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