UK CPI Preview: Inflation “apocalypse” priced in, GBP/USD has room to fall
Economists expect the headline UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) to have jumped from 7% YoY in March to 9.1% in April. I will argue that this leap is already baked into cable, leading to a ‘buy the rumor sell the fact’ effect, in which GBP/USD could actually reverse and fall following the release, contrary to expectations. Read more...
GBP/USD rallies into upper 1.24s post-strong UK jobs data, eyes 21DMA in 1.25s despite rising Brexit risk
Recent concerning headlines highlighting the rising risk that a spat over the Northern Ireland border into a fully-fledged trade war between the UK and EU has failed to dent sterling optimism, with GBP/USD holding in the upper 1.2400s for now as traders digest the implications of a super strong UK labour market report released earlier in the session. The pair has also shrugged off a just-released, stronger than expected US Retail Sales report for April, perhaps as it continues to also find support from a more buoyant tone to risk appetite on Tuesday. Read more...
GBP/USD outlook: Sterling was lifted by upbeat UK jobs data and expectations for hawkish BoE
Cable extends rebound from new 2022 low into third straight day and accelerates recovery on Tuesday after upbeat jobs data. UK unemployment fell to 3.7% in March, the lowest since 1975, improving the sentiment on rising bets for BoE 50 basis points hike on June 16 policy meeting that would lift interest rate to 1.5%. Markets focus Wednesday’s UK CPI data on Wednesday with inflation expected to rise to a 40-year high at 9.1% in April from 7% in March that would add to BoE’s hawkish expectations and give fresh boost to the pound. Read more...
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EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses
EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow range below 1.1100 and remains on track to end the week in negative territory. Earlier in the day, monthly PCE inflation data from the US came in line with the market expectation, failing to trigger a reaction.
GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory at around 1.3150 on Friday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the July PCE inflation data and doesn't allow the pair to stage a rebound heading into the weekend.
Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend
Gold stays under modest bearish pressure and declines toward $2,500 in the American session on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges higher toward 3.9% after US PCE inflation data, causing XAU/USD to stretch lower.
Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation
Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts. The weaker than expected July numbers triggered market turbulence, instilling fears about a potential recession in the US.
Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September Premium
Eurostat will publish the preliminary estimate of the August Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices on Friday, and the anticipated outcome will back up the case for another European Central Bank interest rate cut when policymakers meet in September.
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