GBP/USD outlook: Bulls regain traction but more evidence needed to signal reversal
Cable regained traction on Friday after negative tone prevailed during this week, with three-day drop ending with a hammer candle that generated initial bullish signal. Fresh advance nearly fully reversed losses of this week but needs lift above pivotal barriers at 1.3887/97 (falling 20DMA / Fibo 61.8% of 1.4001/1.3731 bear-leg) to confirm reversal signal and open way for stronger recovery. Formation of bullish engulfing today would add to positive tone, but stall of 19-d momentum rally on approach to centreline and subsequent descend, warn that recovery may run out of steam. Read more...
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: A third week of declines? Delta, data and dollar strength promise action
GBP/USD has failed to take advantage of the upcoming UK reopening. Inflation data on both sides of the pond, UK jobs and US retail sales predict major movement ahead. Mid-July's daily chart shows bears remain in the lead. The FX Poll is pointing to a gradual upward move. King Dollar reigned supreme, almost regardless of bond yields and some Fed caution. Top-tier US consumer data and Britain's jobs report are now eyed – alongside growing fears of the Delta variant on both sides of the pond. Read more...
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GBP/USD quickly erodes 50-pips, turns south towards 1.3800
GBP/USD rises for the first time in four trading days. Risk recovery offsets poor UK data, Brexit, covid woes. DXY weakness boosts the cable but London fix weighs. GBP/USD runs into fresh supply into the London fix on Friday, quickly giving away nearly 50-pips to turn back towards the 1.3800 level. Read more...
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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