GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Will the recovery sustain above 21 DMA?
Bulls were finally rescued, as GBP/USD stalled its four-week downtrend and rebounded firmly from two-year lows of 1.2155 reached a week ago. A temporary bottom seemed in place, with the 400+ pips recovery, as the US dollar embarked on an overdue correction. The currency pair then flirted with the 1.2500 threshold ahead of BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s appearance and critical US data. Read more...
GBP/USD holds onto weekly gains, near 1.2500
The GBP/USD is moving sideways on Friday, consolidating slightly below 1.2500. The pair remained steady even as stocks in Wall Street turned negative. Risk aversion is offering no boost to the dollar. The pound is rising versus the US dollar for the first time in five weeks as it recovers from the lowest level in almost two years and following a 900 pips slide. The main trend is still bearish for GBP/USD. The pair moved off YTD lows giving signs of an interim bottom. The recovery appears to have room to go, particularly is financial tensions across global markets ease. Read more...
Pound yawns on mixed Retail Sales
UK retail sales showed a strong gain in April, with a gain of 1.4% MoM. This followed a decline of 1.2% in March. However, on a yearly basis, sales volumes were 4.9% lower, as the broader picture looks grim. The monthly gain for March may have been a blip, as consumers were hit with higher household energy costs as well as an increase in taxes. Add into the mix inflation at 9.0% and possibly heading into double-digits, and it’s difficult to envision retail sales moving higher. Read more...
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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