Pound Sterling slumps against USD as Fed sees fewer interest rate cuts in 2025

The Pound Sterling falls against the US Dollar as the latter bounces back, with Fed officials signaling fewer rate cuts in 2025.
Latest commentary by Fed officials shows less willingness to cut interest rates in 2025 amid uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies.
Revised UK GDP estimates for Q3 show that the economy remained flat.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) declines to near the psychological support of 1.2500 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s North American session. The GBP/USD pair falls sharply as the US Dollar rebounds strongly on Monday after a sharp downside move on Friday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to near 108.10.

The Greenback discovers buyer’s interest as its broader outlook is upbeat amid firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will follow a moderate policy-easing approach next year. In the latest dot plot, the Fed signaled only two interest rate cuts in 2025 against the four cuts projected in September. For January’s policy meeting, traders are pricing in that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The latest commentaries by Fed officials have shown that stubborn inflation, better labor market conditions than previously anticipated, and uncertainty over the impact of President-elect Donald Trump's incoming policies on the economy forced them to guide fewer interest rate cuts for 2025.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, the only official who dissented against the rate-cut decision in the policy meeting on Wednesday, said on Friday: “I prefer to hold policy steady until we see further evidence that inflation is resuming its path to our 2% objective.”

This week, thin trading volume due to holidays in Forex markets on Wednesday and Thursday on account of Christmas Day and Boxing Day, respectively, could keep the pair’s price action more muted.

On the economic front, the United States (US) Durable Goods Orders data for November have come in weaker than expected. Durable Goods Orders declined by 1.1%, faster than estimates of 0.4%. In October, the economic data rose by 0.3%.

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling falls on BoE dovish bets

The Pound Sterling weakens against its major peers on Monday. The British currency drops amid an increase in Bank of England’s (BoE) dovish bets for the next year. Traders see a 53-basis points (bps) reduction in interest rates in 2025, up from 46 bps after the BoE policy announcement on Thursday.
BoE dovish bets accelerated after three out of nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members proposed reducing interest rates by 25 bps, more than the projections of market participants. Investors considered the 6-3 vote split a dovish buildup for the next year, which weighed heavily on the Pound Sterling.
Market expectations for 53 bps reduction in interest rates in 2025 suggest that there will be at least two 25-basis-points rate cuts. Still, speculation for the number of interest rate cuts by the UK central bank is similar to that of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and fewer than those expected from the European Central Bank (ECB), making the Pound Sterling an attractive bet in the broader term.
On the contrary, analysts at Deutsche Bank expect the BoE to announce four interest-rate cuts next year, one coming in the first half and the rest in the second half.
Meanwhile, data released on Monday downwardly revised the UK growth rate for the third quarter of the year, raising concerns over the United Kingdom’s (UK) economic outlook. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy remained stagnant in the third quarter, against the 0.4% growth in the April-June period and less than the 0.1% expansion previously estimated.

British Pound PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of the British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. The British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.42%	0.44%	0.49%	0.29%	0.21%	0.23%	0.59%
EUR	-0.42%		-0.00%	0.02%	-0.15%	-0.14%	-0.20%	0.16%
GBP	-0.44%	0.00%		-0.04%	-0.15%	-0.14%	-0.19%	0.18%
JPY	-0.49%	-0.02%	0.04%		-0.14%	-0.19%	-0.20%	0.11%
CAD	-0.29%	0.15%	0.15%	0.14%		-0.03%	-0.05%	0.31%
AUD	-0.21%	0.14%	0.14%	0.19%	0.03%		-0.06%	0.31%
NZD	-0.23%	0.20%	0.19%	0.20%	0.05%	0.06%		0.32%
CHF	-0.59%	-0.16%	-0.18%	-0.11%	-0.31%	-0.31%	-0.32%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling sees more downside towards 1.2300

The Pound Sterling weakens against the US Dollar after a decisive break below the upward-sloping trendline around 1.2600, which is plotted from the October 2023 low of 1.2035.

A death cross, represented by the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.2790, suggests a strong bearish trend in the long run.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 40.00. A fresh downside momentum could trigger if the oscillator sustains below that level.

Looking down, the pair is expected to find a cushion near the April 22 low around 1.2300. On the upside, the December 17 high at 1.2730 will act as key resistance.

BoE FAQs

What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound?

The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).

How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling?

When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound?

In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.

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