Pound Sterling posts fresh four-week low below 1.2700 on cautious mood

The Pound Sterling falls against the US Dollar below 1.2700 amid weak appeal for risk-sensitive currencies.
Investors worry that the US economy could enter a recession.
The British currency will be guided by market speculation for BoE rate cuts.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its downside below 1.2700 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s New York session. The GBP/USD pair weakens as the US Dollar steadies after rebounding from fresh six-month low. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to near 103.00.

The outlook for the US Dollar remains vulnerable as market participants worry about growing speculation of a recession in the United States (US) and an announcement of emergency rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Market expectations of potential US recession grew after a string of weak US economic data. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021, labor demand slowed, and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) contracted at a faster pace in July. However, an economy is considered in a technical recession if its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracts consecutively for two quarters, which appears the opposite in the US’s case, knowing that the economy expanded at a pace of 2.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter. The pace at which the US economy grew was double the growth rate recorded for the January-March period.

Also, the US Services PMI, a sector that accounts for two-thirds of the economy, expanded at a faster pace in July after contracting in June. The PMI report showed that activities in the service sector expanded at a faster-than-expected pace of 51.4. Investors anticipated a growth in the Services PMI to 51.0 from the former release of 48.8.

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling remains on backfoot against US Dollar

The Pound Sterling remains on the back foot against its major peers but performs strongly against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF), as both faced profit-booking on Tuesday. The British currency continues to face pressure from widespread risk aversion.
Apart from fears of a US slowdown, a likely all-out war between Israel and Iran has also kept risk sentiment on tenterhooks. Fears of escalating Middle East conflicts were prompted after Iran-backed Hezbollah said it launched dozens of missiles on Israel on Saturday in retaliation to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by an Israeli airstrike in Tehran.
On the domestic front, the Pound Sterling will be guided by market speculation for the Bank of England (BoE) amid an absence of top-tier events. Market participants expect that the BoE could also deliver subsequent rate cuts to fight against the ripple effects of the US slowdown.
Last week, the BoE cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 5%, with a 5-4 vote split, as expected. The BoE suggested that the central bank will use a cautious approach in its policy normalization process.

Pound Sterling Price Today:

British Pound PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	GBP	EUR	USD	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
GBP		-0.20%	-0.58%	-0.02%	-0.46%	-0.35%	-0.24%	-0.29%
EUR	0.20%		-0.38%	0.16%	-0.28%	-0.16%	-0.06%	-0.04%
USD	0.58%	0.38%		0.55%	0.12%	0.24%	0.40%	0.33%
JPY	0.02%	-0.16%	-0.55%		-0.44%	-0.30%	-0.22%	-0.08%
CAD	0.46%	0.28%	-0.12%	0.44%		0.12%	0.23%	0.18%
AUD	0.35%	0.16%	-0.24%	0.30%	-0.12%		0.12%	0.08%
NZD	0.24%	0.06%	-0.40%	0.22%	-0.23%	-0.12%		0.00%
CHF	0.29%	0.04%	-0.33%	0.08%	-0.18%	-0.08%	-0.01%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling drops to near 1.2700

The Pound Sterling is at a make-or-break near the lower boundary of a Rising Channel chart formation on a daily timeframe. Historically, a pullback move in the aforementioned chart pattern is considered a buying opportunity by market participants.

The GBP/USD pair fell on the back foot after breaking below the crucial support of 1.2900. The Cable is an inch away from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2790, suggesting uncertainty in the near-term trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) declines to near 40.00, which is expected to act as a cushion for the momentum oscillator.

On the downside, the round level of 1.2800 will be a crucial support zone for the Pound Sterling bulls. Meanwhile, the two-year high near 1.3140 will be a key resistance zone for the Cable.

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms 'risk-on' and 'risk-off' mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is 'risk-on'?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is 'risk-off'?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

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