Pound Sterling turns volatile after upbeat US Q4 GDP, focus shifts to Fed/BoE policy

Pound Sterling remains inside the woods despite upbeat US Q4 GDP data.
Strong UK PMIs have prompted expectations of hawkish guidance from BoE policymakers.
Going forward, policy decisions from the Fed/BoE will be in focus.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) turns volatile as investors review pack of the United States economic data, released in the early New York session. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has reported that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data expanded by 3.3% in the last quarter of 2024 while investors projected a slower growth rate of 2% against 4.9% recorded in the July-September quarter. Fresh orders for Durable Goods were stagnant in Decemebr against expaectations of 1.1%. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 19 were up at 214K, against expectations of 200K and the former reading of 189K.

A sheer volatility is anticipated ahead as investors shift focus towards the central bank policy decisions, which are scheduled for next week. The GBP/USD remains sideways as a steady interest rate decision by the Bank of England (BoE) is widely anticipated. However, market participants will keenly focus on the outlook for interest rates as strong PMI’s for December has allowed BoE policymakers to support the argument of maintaining interest rates at restrictive levels for a longer period.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) demonstrates sheer volatility around 103.30 as investors are scrutinizing fresh data to determine whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will consider rate-cuts in the first-half of this year.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Pound Sterling struggles for a direction

Pound Sterling falls slightly to near 1.2700 against the US Dollar as the market mood is slightly cautious ahead of the United States Q4 GDP and core underlying inflation data for January.
The GBP/USD pair delivered a strong upside on Wednesday after robust preliminary UK PMI data for January.
The S&P Global reported the Manufacturing PMI has risen to 47.3 in January (preliminary reading), against expectations of 46.7 and the prior reading of 46.2. Services PMI expanded to 53.8 vs. the former reading of 53.4. Investors projected a slight decline in the economic data to 53.2.
A PMI figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction; above 50 indicates expansion.
The agency reported that manufacturing activities were supported by increased hopes price pressures will ease, lower borrowing costs and a faster economic recovery.
Improved Manufacturing PMI numbers have prompted the need for the BoE to keep interest rates higher for a longer period than what was previously anticipated by market participants. If this trend continues it will likely support Sterling.
Going forward, market participants will shift focus to the interest rate decision by the Bank of England, which will be announced next week.
The BoE is widely anticipated to maintain interest rates steady at 5.25% for the fourth time in a row while fresh guidance on the interest rate outlook will be keenly watched.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling sustains above 1.2700

Pound Sterling oscillates inside Wednesday’s trading session as focus shifts to central bank policy decisions, scheduled for next week. The broader-term trend for the GBP/USD pair remains upbeat as it sustains above the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sharp decline in volatility. A downside move could occur if the Cable drops below the crucial support of 1.2650.

GDP FAQs

What is GDP and how is it recorded?

A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022.
Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.

How does GDP influence currencies?

A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency.
When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.

How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold?

When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

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