PLTR Stock Price: Palantir Technologies still stuck at 100-day moving average resistance

• Palantir shares 1% rally on Thursday broke resistance but retraced.
• PLTR still has the backing of Cathie Wood's ARK funds.
• Palantir shares broke above 100-day moving average in a bullish move.

Update 2: PLTR shares held gains on Thursday, closing 1% higher at $22.86. The shares had been higher earlier in the session, but the broader market turned lower with the Nasdaq ending over 1% down. Given this, PLTR staged an impressive performance. However, this has left the technical picture still unclear. PLTR is stuck at the 100-day moving average resistance at $22.91. 

Update: PLTR shares rallied again on Thursday, breaking above the 100-day moving average in the process. PLTR has a triangle formation that it needs to break out of to accelerate the move upward. PLTR shares are trading at $23.06 at the time of writing for a near 2% gain.

Shares in Palantir outperformed the market yesterday with a 4% gain as the Nasdaq closed up just close to 1%. Palantir is a high beta stock, which means it is basically more volatile than the underlying index. So it can generate outsized returns but also outsized losses. PLTR shares are currently slightly ahead in Thursday's pre-market at $22.70.

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Palantir Technologies shares have been one of the 2021 meme stock performers. Lately, the shares have been more stable. This has allowed some more technical analysis to identify key levels. 

Palantir has a number of fundamental catalysts going for it. A strong government client list, ARK Invest making regular block purchases so far in 2021, and Goldman Sachs turning bullish after the latest set of PLTR results are some of the major pieces of good news.

PLTR shares have struggled to recapture the earlier rise seen in 2021, but perhaps this is not a bad thing for the long-term investor. PLTR shares had moved too high and stretched the valuation metrics too much. Now back toward the mid to low $20s, it is a much more interesting proposition.

Palantir launched on the stock market at the end of September 2020 at a price of $7.25 a share. PLTR was co-founded by legendary Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel. The firm is a data mining and analytics technology company. It helps companies integrate and analyse their various diverse data sets to help make sense of complicated data. Palantir streamlines decision-making based on data analysis. The company helps with search functions and is heavily involved in the security industry, with links to law enforcement agencies such as the FBI, CIA and Department of Defense.

PLTR stock forecast

Palantir shares have been in a triangle formation since early March with declining volume and volatility. Eventually a catalyst will result in a breakout of this range. Usually, the breakout can be sharp.

Currently, PLTR is just holding onto the bullish formation. The spike low from March 5 was sharply rejected and since then PLTR has stalled at higher lows. PLTR shares looked at breaking out to the lower end of the triangle formation but rejected this move as buyers stepped in. This is perfectly evidenced by Cathie Wood releasing her fund purchases for Tuesday for ARK funds. ARK purchased 1 million shares of PLTR on Tuesday, in effect defending the lower price range of the triangle. Thursday's price move lends further credence to the bullish argument with a large bullish engulfing candle.

The first target to reach is the 9 and 100-day moving averages. These are nearly identical now at $22.80 and $22.91 for the 100-day. Ideally, the 9-day would break above the 100-day showing short-term bullish momentum.

Further resistance is provided by the 21-day moving average at $23.32 and the 50-day at $24.39. Once these levels are broken, a test of the upper triangle is inevitable, currently at $25.90. A break here gives a target of $33.15. The size of the entry to a triangle determines the size of the breakout. This move would also have the neat symmetry of filling the gap created by earnings on February 16. 

A break to the downside of the triangle will have a $14.80 target. The area of main concern to bulls should be the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which is showing the possibility of a crossover sell signal. The MACD has been working well for PLTR, trending lower in tandem with price. 

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