The quiet day in the region yesterday was disrupted at the end of the day by headlines from an interview with the Governor of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) after the non-monetary decision meeting. The NBP is on summer break in August and the next monetary meeting is not until the end of September, ING’s FX strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes.
PLN's rally over the last 10 days is over
“Governor Adam Glapiński seems to have taken the opportunity to express his views after some of his colleagues downplayed his recent comments about rate cuts as late as 2026. In yesterday's interview, the governor acknowledges the possibility of the economy and inflation surprising to the downside next year, but it seems his base case scenario is still more of a rate cut in 2026 given the upside risks to inflation in his view.”
“Our economists still see the first rate cut in the second quarter of 2025, which seems like the best decision given the inflation profile for the coming months. There is a chance we could see a rate cut in the first quarter of 2025 if the numbers surprise on the downside. Therefore, we believe that lower market rate levels would again be followed by new pay flow later.”
“While the rates picture is mixed in the short term, we see FX more clearly. PLN reacted by weakening yesterday and we expect to see more today. In our view, this concludes the PLN's rally over the last 10 days and our bias turns bearish with EUR/PLN 4.290 as the first stop indicated by yesterday's fall in the rate differential.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
Gold retreats after setting new record-high above $3,000
Gold corrects lower and trades below $3,000 after setting a new record-high above this level earlier in the day. Rising US Treasury bond yields and the upbeat market mood seems to be limiting XAU/USD's upside for the time being.
EUR/USD advances toward 1.0900 on renewed USD weakness
EUR/USD gains traction and rises toward 1.0900 following a two-day decline. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to find demand and helps the pair push higher. Markets await US consumer sentiment data for March.
GBP/USD rebounds from session lows, stays near 1.2950
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2950 after falling below 1.2920 with the immediate reaction to the disappointing macroeconomic data releases from the UK in the early European session. The renewed USD weakness amid a positive shift seen in risk sentiment helps the pair hold its ground.
US SEC may declare XRP a 'commodity' as Ripple settlement talks begins
The US SEC is considering declaring XRP as a commodity in the ongoing settlement talks with Ripple Labs. FOX News reports suggest Ethereum's regulatory status remains a key reference for XRP’s litigation verdict.
Brexit revisited: Why closer UK-EU ties won’t lessen Britain’s squeezed public finances
The UK government desperately needs higher economic growth as it grapples with spending cuts and potential tax rises later this year. A reset of UK-EU economic ties would help, and sweeping changes are becoming more likely.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.