UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting review the latest interest rate decision by the BSP.
Key Takeaways
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) extended a pause in its tightening cycle for the third straight meeting, as widely expected. It left the overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) rate untouched at 6.25%, the overnight deposit rate at 5.75% and the lending facility rate at 6.75%.
Today’s (17 Aug) monetary policy decision came after the national inflation decelerated to a 16-month low in Jul and the country’s economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in 2Q23 with a broad-based slowdown in domestic demand. The Monetary Board (MB) added that an extended rate pause would further allow the central bank to assess the lagged effects of past interest rate hikes since May 2022 while continuing to guard against the emerging risks to the inflation outlook. On that note, the central bank revised up its inflation projections through 2025, mainly reflecting higher oil price forecasts, persistent food supply constraints and domestic policy changes.
In the latest monetary policy statement (MPS), we sense that BSP is now prioritizing the domestic growth outlook over a potential return of inflation risk. This is premised on two additional lines specifically highlighting weaker growth prospects compared to Jun’s statement, with a same inflation storyline. Given the overall tone of the latest MPS and forward guidance remain in line with our expectation (refer to our 2Q23 GDP report for details), we maintain our view that BSP will continue to leave its RRP rate unchanged at 6.25% in the remaining months of the year, and no rate cuts ahead of the US Fed. The MB will next meet on 21 Sep, right after the US Fed announces its Sep interest rate decision.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to recovery gains near 1.0850 ahead of Fedspeak
EUR/USD trades in positive territory near 1.0850 on Friday following a four-day slide. China's stimulus optimism and a broad US Dollar correction help the pair retrace the dovish ECB decision-induced decline. All eyes remain on the Fedspeak.
GBP/USD pares UK data-led gains at around 1.3050
GBP/USD is trading at around 1.3050 in the second half of the day on Friday, supported by upbeat UK Retail Sales data and a pullback seen in the US Dollar. Later in the day, comments from Federal Reserve officials will be scrutinized by market participants.
Gold at new record peaks above $2,700 on increased prospects of global easing
Gold (XAU/USD) establishes a foothold above the $2,700 psychological level on Friday after piercing through above this level on the previous day, setting yet another fresh all-time high. Growing prospects of a globally low interest rate environment boost the yellow metal.
Crypto ETF adoption should pick up pace despite slow start, analysts say
Big institutional investors are still wary of allocating funds in Bitcoin spot ETFs, delaying adoption by traditional investors. Demand is expected to increase in the mid-term once institutions open the gates to the crypto asset class.
Canada debates whether to supersize rate cuts
A fourth consecutive Bank of Canada rate cut is expected, but the market senses it will accelerate the move towards neutral policy rates with a 50bp step change. Inflation is finally below target and unemployment is trending higher, but the economy is still growing.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.