OPEC estimates higher demand for OPEC+ crude – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The oil market edged lower with ICE Brent trading below $75/bbl this morning following the reports that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to start negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the recent numbers from the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) inventory report were soft for the oil market, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

Trump and Putin agree to start negotiations on Ukraine

"In its monthly report, OPEC left its global oil demand growth estimate unchanged at 1.45m b/d and 1.43m b/d for 2025 and 2026 respectively. On the supply side, the group revised down non-OPEC+ supply by 0.1m b/d for 2025 which shall help increase the requirement for OPEC crude. The group expects demand for OPEC+ crude to increase from 42.2m b/d in 2024 to 42.6m b/d in 2025 and 42.9 mb/d in 2026."

"The group warned about the uncertainty over the supply-demand balance due to the tariffs from the US. In the short term, the OPEC trimmed output by 121k b/d MoM to 26.67m b/d in January. This decline was largely driven by Nigeria (-29k b/d), the UAE (-37k b/d), Iran (-14k b/d) and Venezuela (-17k b/d). The IEA will be releasing its monthly oil market report later today."

"US weekly inventory numbers from the EIA yesterday show that the US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) increased by 4.1m barrels over the last week, well above the 2.5m barrels the market expected. However, this was lower than the 9m barrels build reported by API the previous day. The build was larger when factoring in the SPR, with total US crude oil inventories rising by 4.3m barrels. Total US commercial crude oil stocks stand at 428m barrels, the highest since 22 November 2024."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD flat lines below 1.1900; divergent Fed-ECB expectations offer support

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1835-1.1830 region and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1875 area, remaining nearly unchanged for the day and staying within striking distance of an over one-week high, reached on Tuesday, amid mixed cues.

GBP/USD slips heading into the Thursday trading window

The Pound Sterling pulled back from four-year highs on Wednesday, weighed down by a combination of Bank of England dovishness and UK political uncertainty, even as the US Dollar weakened on soft labor market revisions.

Gold down but not out as focus shifts to more US data

Gold is back in the red near $5,050 early Thursday, having faced strong offers at around the $5,100 mark once again. Buyers keep a close eye on the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data and US-Iran geopolitical developments to regain control.

Crypto trades through a confidence reset

The cryptocurrency market is navigating a liquidity-driven reset rather than a narrative-driven rally. Bitcoin, Ethereum and major altcoins remain under pressure even as new exchange-traded fund filings continue and selected inflow days appear on the tape.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.