- WTI Oil falls to a near six-month-low and sees another push to the downside.
- The US Dollar is in the green and books gains against all G10 currencies.
- Oil faces risk of falling to $74 should Wednesday’s EIA stockpile numbers point to an even bigger build.
Oil prices are selling off as one of the biggest players on the demand side, China, struggles while OPEC+ remains sidelined. At the beginning of October crude price had to endure a 6% drop in one trading day and this Tuesday it printed another blood red 5% devaluation of the benchmark Oil price. The decline accelerated when the overnight American Petroleum Institute (API) numbers revealed a big build in stockpile of 11.9 million barrels.
Meanwhile, The US Dollar (USD) was trading stronger in a move to recover some of its incurred losses from last week. Add a peculiar rate hike from the Australian Central Bank on Tuesday morning, and traders were starting to second guess if the Fed would venture to hike still one more time. The US Dollar Index (DXY) stays afloat above 105, though it is looking for direction.
Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $76.84 per barrel, and Brent Oil trades at $81.09 per barrel at the time of writing.
Oil news and market movers
- Earning season in both the US and Europe have been rather negative, which means that less demand for Oil could be at hand in the coming quarter.
- The outlook for China’s demand for Oil is not looking great: refining margins are narrowing, stockpiles are building and air travel has made it back to pre-pandemic levels and demand. The recent disappointing data on China exports adds to more worries.
- The weekly American Petroleum Institute Crude Stockpile numbers revealed a build of 11.9 million barrels against the previous build of 1.374 million.
- Around 15:30 GMT, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) is due to print its recent stockpile numbers. The previous build was of 0.774 million barrels – no projections pencilled in.
Oil Technical Analysis: Traders not buying into OPEC+ outlook
Oil prices are gearing up to only go one way: lower. That is at least under the current conditions. More and more negative signals from the demand side are screaming for a price correction in WTI and Brent Crude futures. Expect to see more declines at hand until OPEC+ issues more supply cuts to meet the faded demand.
On the upside, $80 is the new resistance to watch out for. Should Crude be able to jump higher again, look for $84 (purple line) as the next level to see some selling pressure or profit taking. Should Oil prices be able to consolidate above there, the topside for this fall near $93 could come back into play.
On the downside, traders are bracing for trading in this psychological region near $78. The area should see ample support for buying. Any further drops below this level might see a firm nosedive move, which would likely cause Oil prices to sink below $70.
-638350350088083720.png)
US Crude (Daily Chart)
WTI Oil FAQs
What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds sizeable gains near 1.0900 on German fiscal optimism
EUR/USD holds sizeable near 1.0900 in European trading on Tuesday. Improved risk appetite, sustained US Dollar weakness and German Greens predicting a spending deal this week power the pair's upsurge ahead of US JOLTs data and US-Ukraine Summit.
GBP/USD extends gains above 1.2900 amid sustained US Dollar weakness
GBP/USD extends gains above 1.2900 in the European sessopn on Tuesday. The pair advances as the US Dollar remains pressured amid Trump's tariffs uncertainty and US recession fears. All eyes remain on the US jobs data and US-Ukraine Summitt for further impetus.
Gold price climbs further beyond $2,900; reverses major part of Monday's fall to one-week low
Gold price builds on its intraday ascent beyond the $2,900 mark, hitting a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session and reversing a major the previous day's losses to a one-week low. Investors remain worried about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and persistent geopolitical risks.
The crypto market cap dips to $2.44 trillion while Mt. Gox moves 11,833 BTC worth $932 million
The crypto market continued its ongoing downleg as the week started, as its market cap capitalization reached a low of $2.44 trillion on Tuesday, levels not seen since early November.
Gold price climbs further beyond $2,900; reverses major part of Monday's fall to one-week low
Gold price builds on its intraday ascent beyond the $2,900 mark, hitting a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session and reversing a major the previous day's losses to a one-week low. Investors remain worried about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and persistent geopolitical risks.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.