Oil: Prices are undervalued given the current supply uncertainty - Rabobank

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

"The oil market is setting up for further gains this week after posting another series of higher highs and higher lows," argued Rabobank research team. "Supply-side worries have increased on the margin and geopolitical risk from Venezuela, Iran, Libya and Nigeria is starting to get priced in to the futures curve along with a slowdown in US production growth."

Key quotes

"Looking forward we remain highly convicted that prices are undervalued given the current supply uncertainty. The geopolitical risk premium in the market is increasing but has yet to be fully priced in our view. Our base case forecast is for Brent to be trading in the high-60s in the coming days with upside risks should we see further disruption to supplies."

"Market technicals are also pointing to further upside as we breakout from the coiling pattern we have been in for the last four weeks and momentum buyers flip from short to long. The 200-day moving average of $71.41 in the prompt Brent continuous contract should provide strong resistance above, but that still leaves another $6/bbl before we test those levels."

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

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