- NZD/USD reached to 27-month low at 0.5607 after the release of Gross Domestic Product data for the third quarter.
- New Zealand's GDP shrank by 1.0% QoQ in Q3, against the expected 0.4% contraction.
- Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections suggested only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four cuts projected in September.
NZD/USD extends its losing streak for the third successive session following weaker-than-expected New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the third quarter. The Kiwi pair declined to 0.5607, the lowest level not seen since October 2022, currently trading around 0.5640 during the European hours on Thursday.
New Zealand's GDP contracted by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, slightly improving from the revised 1.1% contraction in Q2 but worse than the anticipated 0.4% decline. On an annual basis, GDP shrank by 1.5% in Q3, a sharper decline compared to the previous 0.5% contraction and well below the expected 0.4% drop. This disappointing data places New Zealand in its deepest recession since the initial COVID-19 slump in 2020.
The New Zealand Dollar faces additional pressure from renewed concerns over China's economy, a critical trading partner. Weak Chinese economic data, including Retail Sales missing expectations in November, has heightened challenges for policymakers. This comes despite President Xi Jinping's recent call to boost household consumption.
The NZD/USD pair dropped over 1.5% in the previous session as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at its December meeting, bringing the benchmark lending rate to a range of 4.25%-4.50%, marking a two-year low. The Summary of Economic Projections, or ‘dot-plot,’ suggested only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four cuts projected in September.
Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made clear on Wednesday that the Fed will be cautious about further cuts as inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. Traders are highly expected to focus on upcoming US economic data, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, and the final Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized reading, scheduled for release on Thursday.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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