NZD/USD stays below 100-day EMA despite upbeat New Zealand PPI data

• NZD/USD seesaws inside the post-RBNZ range.
• New Zealand’s Q3 PPI numbers crossed market consensus and forecasts.
• The US-China phase one deal sentiment stays a little sluggish after Chinese officials’ comments.

Even if better than forecast New Zealand PPI data offers a little respite to the NZD/USD pair traders, the quote stays below 100-day EMA while taking rounds to 0.6400 during initial Asian session on Tuesday.

New Zealand’s Q3 PPI Output rose past-0.3% forecast and +0.5% prior to 1.0% while PPI input also crossed 0.5% expected and 0.3% earlier to 0.9%.

In a reaction the NZD/USD pair stopped its declines after the comments from the RBNZ’s Hawkesby.

The quote earlier weakened after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Assistant Governor for Economics, Financial Markets and Banking, Christian Hawkesby, strengthened support for low-interest rates while citing downside risks to the economy.

Sentiment surrounding the phase one trade deal between the United States (US) and China recently turned a downbeat after CNBC reported a story, relying on Chinese officials, which showed that China is not optimistic about reaching a trade deal with the US. The reason cited was the US President Donald Trump’s refrain from rolling back the tariffs. It was also mentioned that they would rather wait for the impeachment and the election in the US while focusing on supporting its own economy.

With this, the US dollar (USD) regained its safe-haven demand that additionally got support from the headlines focusing on the meeting between the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman, the US President Trump and the Trade Secretary Steve Mnuchin. After the meeting, President Trump tweeted, “Just finished a very good & cordial meeting at the White House with Jay Powell of the Federal Reserve. Everything was discussed including interest rates, negative interest, low inflation, easing, Dollar strength & its effect on manufacturing, trade with China, E.U. & others, etc.”

Given the initial market reaction to the third quarter (Q3) Producer Price Index (PPI) data, markets now have no major data/events up for publish and hence would rely mainly on trade headlines for fresh impulse. However, monetary policy meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could be given a chance as being the updates from the largest customer of New Zealand.

During the US session, housing numbers and a few more of the Fed speakers will entertain the traders.

Technical Analysis

Unless providing a daily close beyond 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6427 prices are less likely to aim for monthly high surrounding 0.6470, needless to mention about 0.6500 round-figure. As a result, 0.6370 and multiple lows near 0.6320 can keep pleasing short-term sellers.